World Cup Draw Review: Concacaf

Concacaf has finally gotten a system that seems fair and likely to qualify the best teams to the World Cup. There was still a problem this time around however, typical for the region. The problem is that unlike the rest of the world Concacaf chose to use the rankings from March for their seeding, four months prior to the draw. The direct result of this unwise choice was Cuba being seeded while Panama, El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago and Canada had to go through the first group round.

The first group round makes sence for Concacaf. Six groups of four teams in which only the group winner progresses. This gives a lot of the smaller nations a chance to play more than just 2 games and against more than just one opponent. While the eventual result of most of these groups are obvious, in the long run I think the region will benefit from more matches for the smaller nations. The draw in Brazil this past weekend formed the groups for this first group round as well as the Semi Round that will follow.

Group A is made up of El Salvador, Suriname, Cayman Islands and the Dominican Republic. El Salvador made an amazing run all the way to the final round (the Hexagonal) of qualifying last cycle and though it was unexpected they did well to represent themselves. Suriname made it to the Semi Round last time in what was also an unexpected performance. At that stage they put up little fight though. The Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic have not had much previous qualifying success and group play in the World Cup is a new experience for both. El Salvador are a force at home versus the region's best and should not have much problem versus opponents of this quality. I fully expect them to win the group and qualify for the Semi Round with ease.

El Salvador

2006 qualifiers, Trinidad and Tobago were drawn into Group B where they will meet Guyana, Barbados and Bermuda. Given the talent in this round, this group is one of the strongest. Trinidad and Tobago qualified for the World Cup in 2006 but since then have been on a downward spiral and have not even played a match this year. They have played Guyana a few times over the last few years however and that may go a long way for them. Guyana has never made it to the Semi Round and even with Trinidad and Tobago's struggles they will most likely not make it past this group. Barbados made it to the Semi Round in the World Cup 2002 qualifying cycle and even managed a victory over Costa Rica to open their campaign. After that historic win however they were not able to record another victory. Since then Barbados has fallen a bit and will most likely not be much of a threat on the group. Bermuda has not done well in World Cup qualifying since the 1994 cycle but the last time around they managed to beat Trinidad and Tobago in Trinidad. If they can repeat that feat it will go a long way in this group. Expect a close group but without many major upsets.

Trinidad and Tobago

Group C should be called the group of minnows. Panama, who are one of the region's best currently, will face Dominica, Nicaragua and the Bahamas. None of those three have ever made it to the Semi Round and rarely qualify for regional tournaments. The Bahamas are a super minnow and will most likely not earn a point. Nicaragua qualified for a Gold Cup not too long ago but are usually not a threat in World Cup qualifying. Dominica, regardless of being second seeds, are just as bad as Nicaragua if not worst. Panama made it all the way to the Hexagonal in the 2006 cycle but followed it up by failing to qualify for the Semi Round last time around. Panama should win the group with full points and move on.

Canada, St. Kitts and Nevis, Puerto Rico and St.Lucia make up Group D. Puerto Rico and St.Lucia are true minnows while St.Kitts are good enough to beat both but not beat Canada once. Canada, traditional underachievers, are used to the Semi Round and should be back there again. They have not qualified for the Hexagonal the last 3 times though, not since the 1998 cycle. St.Kitts played in the Semi Round in the 2006 cycle but were embarrased by Mexico there. If there's any doubt as to who will win the group going into the final match, St.Kitts having to play in Canada in November will settle it.

If there's a tough group in this round then Group E wins the title hands down. Grenada, Guatemala, St.Vincent and the Grenadines and Belize make up a thrilling group. Grenada have done well enough over the past 5 years to warrant being seeded in this round but will have their work cut out for them. Their toughest opponents are Guatemala, who are regulars at the Semi Round and true favorites to win the group by most. St.Vincent and the Grenadines had a great level of success for a nation of their size from the 1994 cycle to the 2006 cycle and no one can take their reputation away from them. They made the Semi Round in every one of those 4 cycles before failing in the 2010 cycle. Belize will bring up the rear but are far from the easiest minnow that could've been drawn into the group. While Guatemala are favorites they will play their final 2 matches against Grenada with the last being in Grenada. Playing in the Caribbean is never an easy task for Central American nations and could prove decisive for Guatemala. St.Vincent and the Grenadines however may benefit from being placed as a third seed. They play their final 2 matches against Belize and if they manage to keep things close going into those final 2 games it may put them in great position to win the group. They're also familiar enough with Grenada to not be threatened by their ranking.

Grenada

The final preliminery group includes Haiti, Antigua, Curacao and the US Virgin Islands. Overall this is the weakest group and there may not be much outside interest here. The US Virgin Islands will end play with 0 points and I can garauntee that before a ball is kicked. Curacao played formerly as the Netherland Antilles, well atleast all their players did before the Antilles broke apart. Antigua, while improving over the years, can threaten Haiti for the group but if they get past then they will suffer a harsh reality upon reaching the next round. Haiti would usually be the outright favorites in the group but after the tragedy that struck their nation last year...who knows what kind of effort they will put forth.

The Semi Round is where the quality of football gets higher and we seperate the men from the boys. Group A includes the USA and Jamaica from the seeded teams and most likely Haiti and Guatemala from the groups I listed above. The USA will of course finish top 2 and qualify from this group to the Hexagonal. Guatemala (if they mak it to this stage) will put up a nice challenge, but truthfully Jamaica are as good, if not better, than their 1998 team that qualified for the World Cup in France. Haiti, if they make it past the previous round, will finish last in the group.

Jamaica

Group B in the Semi Round should be the toughest. It involves Mexico and Costa Rica from the seeded pots and most likely Trinidad and Tobago and El Salvador as winners of their preliminery groups. Mexico are traditionally the region's best and Costa Rica can be as strong as the top seeds on any given day. Trinidad and Tobago realistically should not pose much of a threat to either of the top 2, while El Salvador should be dominant at home but not good enough overall. If all teams play at their best though, expect fireworks and surprises.

Group C will be the weakest of the bunch overall. Honduras and Cuba were the seeded teams assigned to this group and they are expected to be joined by Canada and Panama. Honduras are not far removed from their World Cup appearance in 2010 but a Gold Cup loss to Jamaica would suggest that they are closer to the second seeds than they are to USA and Mexico in quality. Cuba, while seeded, will in all likelihood finish last in the group. They don't travel well, as you would expect wth a country in their situation, and they just don't have the players to compete against the better teams in the region. Canada has a nice opportunity to make it to the Hexagonal for the first time since the 1998 cycle, but they usually underachieve and Panama can cause them trouble. Panama are my pick to finish 2nd in this group as they have been improving steadily since 2004 and the draw was favorable to them.

Cuba

I will revisit these groups once we get a clearer picture of what these groups will looks like. The preliminery round will begin on September 2nd and the road to Brazil will begin to take shape in North America. By the end of the year we will know for sure what the Semi Round groups will look like and what to expect heading deeper into this cycle.