Group A: (El Salvador, Suriname, Dominican Republic, Cayman Islands)
El Salvador came into qualifying as favourites in group A with little resistance expected from the remaining group members. They however met a bit of resistance in their opening match against the Dominican Republic. They went into halftime of the match tied 0-0 and ended with a slim 3-2 win over an opponent that was not expected to compete. Three points in this stage of qualifying is however more important than goal differential and they got the expected win. Suriname beat the Cayman Islands 1-0 in the other opening match, a scoreline that was also closer than expected. The following week the nations met again in the 2nd group matches. In another surprising performance, Dominican Republic managed to earn a point against Suriname in a 1-1 tie. El Salvador bounced back well in the other match beating the Cayman Islands by the score of 4-1.
What Have We Learned?
None of the groups four competing teams are good enough to even play spoiler in the next round. El Salvador showed that they're still inconsistant and the opening 3-2 win over Dominican Republic makes you question if they are still the force they've always been at home? Suriname, currently in 2nd place with 4 points, have scored twice from two penalties. They struggled to beat both of the group's minnows and if they manage to qualify from this group they will not earn a point in the next round. The Dominican Republic have been the most impressive of the group given previous expectations but are only one loss away from elimination. The Cayman Islands won't compete anymore than they have so far.
Group B: (Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, Barbados, Bermuda)
The opening games of this group weren't as close as the final scorelines would lead you to believe. Trinidad and Tobago took on Bermuda to open their campaign, in a rematch of a 2010 qualifier. Bermuda beat T&T in Trinidad the last time around before falling at home in the playoff and tried to duplicate the result. This time however the match was one sided but despite many opportunities, T&T couldn't find the net. In the end a 45th minute goal was all that seperated the sides, 1-0 to Trinidad and Tobago. In the other match, Guyana answered all previous questions about how evenly they would be matched with Barbados. The Guyanese won the opening contest 2-0 without any threat of losing. In the 2nd matches, T&T took on Barbados and Guyana met Bermuda. The matchups were different but the winners and margin of victory remained the same. Trinidad and Tobago beat Barbados away 2-0 while Guyana beat Bermuda at home 2-1.
What Have We Learned?
This is a two team race. Trinidad and Tobago look solid despite not playing for almost a year before the start of qualifying. They are yet to concede a goal and have won both of their matches in one sided affairs. Guyana however currently sit in 1st place thanks to their goal difference. The only goal they have conceded thus far was a 90th minute goal by Bermuda. They are stronger than expected and could provide good competition for Trinidad and Tobago. Barbados are worst than expected and in all probability will finish the group in last place after 2 lackluster performances while failing to score. Bermuda for what its worth have shown for the 2nd cycle in a row that they are not typical minnows and will give anyone a tough match...they are 1 loss away from elimination however.
Group C: (Panama, Nicaragua, Dominica)
The Bahamas withdrew before the competition started and even if they had competed they would have most likely embarrased themselves in the 6 scheduled matches. The remaining 3 teams though will battle it out for 1 spot in the next round of qualifying. In the opening match of the group, Nicaragua beat Dominica by the score of 2-0 in an away game. Four days later they faced the fancied Panamanians at home but despite playing a close game they lost 2-1.
What Have We Learned?
Losing one team has really made the group unbalanced and less interesting. The fact that 2 of the 3 remaining teams are Dominica and Nicaragua makes the group one sided as well. Panama will win the group easily, but the lack of competition may not do much to prepare them for the next round.
Group D: (Canada, St.Lucia, St.Kitts, Puerto Rico)
Canada got a very favourable draw, not just for this round but for the following one as well. They capitalized on their good fortune by winning their opening match 4-1 (after being tied 1-1 after 7 minutes) against St.Lucia. St.Kitts hosted an improved Puerto Rico in the other opener and surprisingly St.Kitts were held at home 0-0 by the baseball loving Puerto Ricans. Going into the 2nd match, Canada were already alone in 1st place and they did well to hold on to their group lead by beating Puerto Rico 3-0. In a matchup of Saints, St.Lucia hosted St.Kitts but went behind 3-0 in the first 15 minutes, eventually losing 4-2.
What Have We Learned?
Canada have had a fast start and should run away with this group before the final round of games. St.Lucia have given up 4 goals in every qualifier they've played so far including the preliminaries, they also have a knack for giving up early goals. They will always be involved in exciting matches, but unfortunately for them they will lose most of them. St.Kitts did themselves no favours tying Puerto Rico early on. They will be playing catch up to Canada the whole way and any other dropped points will seal the group. Puerto Rico are on the brink of elimination but have done well for themselves to this point. They managed to go almost a game and a half without conceding a goal but they won't do much to finish above 3rd.
Group E: (Grenada, Guatemala, St.Vincent and the Grenadines, Belize)
Coming into this round, Group E was looked upon as by far the closest and the most interesting group. Who would have thought that 2 games into play we would be shocked and surprised in the most shocking way. The shock started with the very first match, when Grenada hosted Belize. Grenada has played in the last 2 Gold Cups and almost beat Costa Rica at home in qualifying for the 2010 World Cup, they were also seeded for this group. So when they lost 0-3 to Belize at home to open their campaign, it was more than just a little surprising. In the other opener, Guatemala hosted St.Vincent and the Grenadines. Past their best years, St.Vincent aren't the respectable side they were in the 90's and early 2000's but they are still capable of an upset. That upset did not come in their trip to Central America though, they lost soundly 4-0 to the Guatemalans. Four days later, Belize hosted their Central American opponents, Guatemala and lost 2-1 in a closer than expected match. Almost 2 weeks later on September 18th, St.Vincent would host Grenada in their 2nd match. Both were coming off blowout losses, shameful for two of the more respected Caribbean nations. St.Vincent protected their home ground of Arnos Vale and won 2-1.
What Have We Learned?
Grenada will not qualify from this group and infact will do well to finish above the bottom of the group. They have been outplayed thoroughly and are yet to meet Guatemala. Guatemala have filled the role that Grenada left void, they have full points from their matches and should qualify for the next round as many would have expected before hand. St.Vincent and the Grenadines, while not the team they once were, may be motivated by their win over Grenada and if they can hold Guatemala to a draw in their next home game they stand a small chance. Belize, like Puerto Rico, Bermuda and the Dominican Republic have shown that they are more than just minnows. Unlike those teams however, Belize stands a real chance in this group. They finish their schedule with two games against St.Vincent and the Grenadines and still play Grenada and Guatemala once. Currently in 2nd place, they can have a nice run in the group.
Group F: (Haiti, Antigua and Barbuda, Curacao, US Virgin Islands)
Group F is like no other group in this round. A clear minnow, a clear super minnow and two teams of equal strength. That means 2 things, we get a predictable and one-sided beginning to the group with a close and potentially surprising end to it. In the first game, Haiti beat the US Virgin Islands 6-0. In the other match, Antigua beat Curacao 5-2 after falling behind early. In the 2nd match, Antigua beat USVI by the score of 8-1, while Haiti beat Curacao 4-2 after falling behind twice.
What Have We Learned?
The effects of the earthquake have affected Haiti's national team performance though it hasn't shown yet in qualifying. The goal difference game has been won by Antigua so far and that may come into play later on in the group. A few years ago, Haiti would not be challenged by the likes of Antigua but since the earthquake Haiti are not what they once were. This one is too tough to call at the moment and it will come down to the final two games.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Thursday, September 15, 2011
World Cup Qualifying: What Have We Learned?
After a few weeks away, I'm back and there's a lot to talk about on the agenda! Since my last post, World Cup qualifying and Euro Cup qualifying have taken place. Almost every team played two games in a 5 day span and the qualifying groups have all begun to take shape. We'll start today with World Cup qualifying in Asia and discuss what the results mean.
Group A (China, Iraq, Jordan, Singapore)
With the top two teams moving on to the final round from each group, groups like Group A would be fiercely contested. China, Iraq and Jordan are all quality squads while Singapore are good enough to play spoiler. Infact, Singapore almost played spoiler in the opening game at China. Singapore took the lead early only to lose 2-1. On the same day, in what was maybe the most important match of the group, Jordan beat Iraq in an away game. The result was significant because it gave Jordan the upper hand over Iraq, a team that was considered similar in quality. It was also an away game for Jordan, the next time they play Iraq they will be at home and a draw may be enough to eliminate the Iraqis then. Four days later on September 6th the second games were played in the Group. Iraq and Singapore, both coming off of losses, met in Singapore and Iraq won 2-0 to earn their first 3 points while Singapore are yet to get a point. Game 1 winners, China and Jordan played for 1st place in Amman, Jordan and despite a goalless first half Jordan won the game 2-1 to move into first place alone with 6 points.
What Have We Learned?:
Jordan are a better team than expected and WILL qualify for the final round. They play Singapore in both of their next 2 games and should qualify for the final round with 2 wins. China plays Iraq in their next two games and they can also make their road to the final round easy with 6 or even 4 points. Iraq, who I expected to challenge for spot until they met Jordan in Jordan in game 5, may already be in too big of a hole. If Iraq can earn a win against China in the upcoming games however, they will help themselves greatly.
Group B (South Korea, UAE, Kuwait, Lebanon)
On paper, Group B looked clear cut. South Korea and Kuwait would progress while UAE would help decide who finished second with an upset here or there and Lebanon would finish bottom. The opening games went as expected, South Korea beat Lebanon at home 6-0 while Kuwait won 3-2 at UAE in a game that ended up closer than it should have. In the 2nd games we got more interesting results. Kuwait hosted South Korea and the match ended up in a 1-1 draw. The next match gave us our first real surprise with Lebanon beating UAE 3-1 at home. South Korea and Kuwait sit atop of the group with 4 points, while Lebanon is surprisingly on 3 points. The UAE are yet to earn any points.
What Have We Learned?:
Lebanon may not be as bad as originally thought and the UAE may not be as competitive as we had hoped. South Korea should put UAE out of their misery in the next 2 matches while an improved Lebanon may not be enough of a threat to prevent Kuwait from winning both of their next matches. The group looks all but settled with South Korea and Kuwait moving on to the last round predictably.
Group C (Japan, North Korea, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan)
This group was the group that had originally been looked at as the best and most competitive of the round. Japan are perhaps the best on the continent, while North Korea qualified for the last World Cup. Uzbekistan have come close to qualifying for World Cups recently and are becoming regulars in the final round as well. Syria was originally supposed to be the group's third seed and with them present the group have have 4 tough squads participating, but Syria were replaced by Tajikistan after it was discovered that they had used an ineligable player in the previous round versus Tajikistan. Syria's disqualification, meant that the group would finally have a clear bottom feeder. The first games in the group showed just how tough the group would be. Tajikistan, originally eliminated in the last round by Syria, did a good job and held Uzbekistan at 0-0 for most of the game before losing 1-0. In the matchup of World Cup 2010 participants, Japan and North Korea played a tough match in Saitama. Japan won the match 1-0 on a 94th minute goal, North Korea were very close to earning a point away against the groups best but had to settle for nothing. The 2nd game had North Korea hosting Tajikistan and they won 1-0 to earn their first 3 points, had they held on in Japan they would have 4 points from 2 games...not bad for a 4th seed. In the other match, Uzbekistan scored early on Japan but the match ended in a tie. Japan and Uzbekistan are deadlocked on 4 points and goal difference. North Korea are on 3 points and predictably Tajikistan are on 0, despite two respectable performances.
What Have We Learned?:
Even with Tajikistan joining the group, it is still a tight close group. Uzbekistan aren't flashy but get the job done and are in good position. Japan have not played like the group favorites yet but have 4 points to show for it, though it could have easily been 2 points with them in 3rd place. North Korea could be on 4 points but have to settle for 3. With two teams going through, Japan are safe and will be fine, Uzbekistan face North Korea in their next two and that will decide who joins the Japanese in the final round. Tajikistan are doing well to represent themselves and the group is just as tough as we expected.
Group D (Australia, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand)
Like Group C, this group was also considered to be pretty tough before it started. Australia and Saudi Arabia should be the clear favorites,while Oman and Thailand can both play spoiler with no clear minnow. Australia played Thailand first and in typical spoiler fashion Thailand scored first. Australia went into the half at home down 1-0. The second half went more like we expected and Australia survived the scare to win 2-1. Saudi Arabia travelled to Oman and unlike Australia they weren't able to come out of a close game with a win. They had to accept 0-0 against a team that should not be equal to them. Thailand went into the 2nd match as the only team in the group to not have earned a point but quickly changed that, winning 3-0 against Oman. Australia travelled to Saudi Arabia to play in what should have been the closest match of the entire group, instead it was not close and Australia won convincingly 3-1. After 2 games Australia have earned full points while Saudi Arabia is struggling to place in the top 2.
What Have We Learned?:
Saudi Arabia tied Oman 0-0 and Oman lost to Thailand 3-0. That says a lot about where Saudi Arabia have fallen. It is not certain whether Saudi Arabia will be able to qualify for the final round given their performances so far. That opens the door for Thailand. Oman play Australia twice in a row now and may fall out of contention. Australia may finish this group with full points. Saudi Arabia travels to Thailand next, keep an eye on that match. If Saudi Arabia can't win that match they will not qualify for the final round.
Group E (Iran, Qatar, Bahrain, Indonesia)
This group, more than maybe any other group, has turned into a 3 team race. Iran hosted Indonesia to begin their campaign, and predictably they won 3-0. Bahrain hosted Qatar and that match ended 0-0, keeping both teams in it. Bahrain versus Qatar I felt would be the defining matchup of the group as they fight for second place and this game showed just how close they are. Bahrain got their first win in their next game, defeating Indonesia 2-0. The win took them to 4 points from 2 games. Qatar, the 2022 World Cup hosts, played host to Iran in their 2nd match and it ended in a draw, 1-1. Iran now sits on 4 points, like Bahrain and Qatar have 2 draws leaving them on 2 points.
What Have We Learned?:
We've learned that Indonesia stands alone at the bottom of the group. Iran, Bahrain and Qatar compete for 2 spots in the final round and all look capable. Iran play Bahrain twice in a row now, and both are tied atop the group with 4 points. Qatar get Indonesia twice in a row now. Qatar can end up on 8 points after the 2 matches, while Bahrain or Iran can fall significantly behind by that time. Qatar finishes at Iran and before that they host Bahrain though, so it'll be tough across the board and exciting to see who qualifies to the final round and who gets eliminated from this group.
In the next few days I'll discuss what we learned in Concacaf as well as in Euro Cup qualifying and finally I'll make a post about the qualifying formats of each confederation and how to improve them.
Group A (China, Iraq, Jordan, Singapore)
With the top two teams moving on to the final round from each group, groups like Group A would be fiercely contested. China, Iraq and Jordan are all quality squads while Singapore are good enough to play spoiler. Infact, Singapore almost played spoiler in the opening game at China. Singapore took the lead early only to lose 2-1. On the same day, in what was maybe the most important match of the group, Jordan beat Iraq in an away game. The result was significant because it gave Jordan the upper hand over Iraq, a team that was considered similar in quality. It was also an away game for Jordan, the next time they play Iraq they will be at home and a draw may be enough to eliminate the Iraqis then. Four days later on September 6th the second games were played in the Group. Iraq and Singapore, both coming off of losses, met in Singapore and Iraq won 2-0 to earn their first 3 points while Singapore are yet to get a point. Game 1 winners, China and Jordan played for 1st place in Amman, Jordan and despite a goalless first half Jordan won the game 2-1 to move into first place alone with 6 points.
What Have We Learned?:
Jordan are a better team than expected and WILL qualify for the final round. They play Singapore in both of their next 2 games and should qualify for the final round with 2 wins. China plays Iraq in their next two games and they can also make their road to the final round easy with 6 or even 4 points. Iraq, who I expected to challenge for spot until they met Jordan in Jordan in game 5, may already be in too big of a hole. If Iraq can earn a win against China in the upcoming games however, they will help themselves greatly.
Group B (South Korea, UAE, Kuwait, Lebanon)
On paper, Group B looked clear cut. South Korea and Kuwait would progress while UAE would help decide who finished second with an upset here or there and Lebanon would finish bottom. The opening games went as expected, South Korea beat Lebanon at home 6-0 while Kuwait won 3-2 at UAE in a game that ended up closer than it should have. In the 2nd games we got more interesting results. Kuwait hosted South Korea and the match ended up in a 1-1 draw. The next match gave us our first real surprise with Lebanon beating UAE 3-1 at home. South Korea and Kuwait sit atop of the group with 4 points, while Lebanon is surprisingly on 3 points. The UAE are yet to earn any points.
What Have We Learned?:
Lebanon may not be as bad as originally thought and the UAE may not be as competitive as we had hoped. South Korea should put UAE out of their misery in the next 2 matches while an improved Lebanon may not be enough of a threat to prevent Kuwait from winning both of their next matches. The group looks all but settled with South Korea and Kuwait moving on to the last round predictably.
Group C (Japan, North Korea, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan)
This group was the group that had originally been looked at as the best and most competitive of the round. Japan are perhaps the best on the continent, while North Korea qualified for the last World Cup. Uzbekistan have come close to qualifying for World Cups recently and are becoming regulars in the final round as well. Syria was originally supposed to be the group's third seed and with them present the group have have 4 tough squads participating, but Syria were replaced by Tajikistan after it was discovered that they had used an ineligable player in the previous round versus Tajikistan. Syria's disqualification, meant that the group would finally have a clear bottom feeder. The first games in the group showed just how tough the group would be. Tajikistan, originally eliminated in the last round by Syria, did a good job and held Uzbekistan at 0-0 for most of the game before losing 1-0. In the matchup of World Cup 2010 participants, Japan and North Korea played a tough match in Saitama. Japan won the match 1-0 on a 94th minute goal, North Korea were very close to earning a point away against the groups best but had to settle for nothing. The 2nd game had North Korea hosting Tajikistan and they won 1-0 to earn their first 3 points, had they held on in Japan they would have 4 points from 2 games...not bad for a 4th seed. In the other match, Uzbekistan scored early on Japan but the match ended in a tie. Japan and Uzbekistan are deadlocked on 4 points and goal difference. North Korea are on 3 points and predictably Tajikistan are on 0, despite two respectable performances.
What Have We Learned?:
Even with Tajikistan joining the group, it is still a tight close group. Uzbekistan aren't flashy but get the job done and are in good position. Japan have not played like the group favorites yet but have 4 points to show for it, though it could have easily been 2 points with them in 3rd place. North Korea could be on 4 points but have to settle for 3. With two teams going through, Japan are safe and will be fine, Uzbekistan face North Korea in their next two and that will decide who joins the Japanese in the final round. Tajikistan are doing well to represent themselves and the group is just as tough as we expected.
Group D (Australia, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand)
Like Group C, this group was also considered to be pretty tough before it started. Australia and Saudi Arabia should be the clear favorites,while Oman and Thailand can both play spoiler with no clear minnow. Australia played Thailand first and in typical spoiler fashion Thailand scored first. Australia went into the half at home down 1-0. The second half went more like we expected and Australia survived the scare to win 2-1. Saudi Arabia travelled to Oman and unlike Australia they weren't able to come out of a close game with a win. They had to accept 0-0 against a team that should not be equal to them. Thailand went into the 2nd match as the only team in the group to not have earned a point but quickly changed that, winning 3-0 against Oman. Australia travelled to Saudi Arabia to play in what should have been the closest match of the entire group, instead it was not close and Australia won convincingly 3-1. After 2 games Australia have earned full points while Saudi Arabia is struggling to place in the top 2.
What Have We Learned?:
Saudi Arabia tied Oman 0-0 and Oman lost to Thailand 3-0. That says a lot about where Saudi Arabia have fallen. It is not certain whether Saudi Arabia will be able to qualify for the final round given their performances so far. That opens the door for Thailand. Oman play Australia twice in a row now and may fall out of contention. Australia may finish this group with full points. Saudi Arabia travels to Thailand next, keep an eye on that match. If Saudi Arabia can't win that match they will not qualify for the final round.
Group E (Iran, Qatar, Bahrain, Indonesia)
This group, more than maybe any other group, has turned into a 3 team race. Iran hosted Indonesia to begin their campaign, and predictably they won 3-0. Bahrain hosted Qatar and that match ended 0-0, keeping both teams in it. Bahrain versus Qatar I felt would be the defining matchup of the group as they fight for second place and this game showed just how close they are. Bahrain got their first win in their next game, defeating Indonesia 2-0. The win took them to 4 points from 2 games. Qatar, the 2022 World Cup hosts, played host to Iran in their 2nd match and it ended in a draw, 1-1. Iran now sits on 4 points, like Bahrain and Qatar have 2 draws leaving them on 2 points.
What Have We Learned?:
We've learned that Indonesia stands alone at the bottom of the group. Iran, Bahrain and Qatar compete for 2 spots in the final round and all look capable. Iran play Bahrain twice in a row now, and both are tied atop the group with 4 points. Qatar get Indonesia twice in a row now. Qatar can end up on 8 points after the 2 matches, while Bahrain or Iran can fall significantly behind by that time. Qatar finishes at Iran and before that they host Bahrain though, so it'll be tough across the board and exciting to see who qualifies to the final round and who gets eliminated from this group.
In the next few days I'll discuss what we learned in Concacaf as well as in Euro Cup qualifying and finally I'll make a post about the qualifying formats of each confederation and how to improve them.
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Stern John chasing 70
Name the top 10 goal scorers in International soccer history...really, think about it. Did you guess Ferenc Puskas from Hungary? How about Pele? Did you remember Gerd Muller from the 1970's German teams? If you did you would be correct. Infact if you go a bit further than the top 10 to the top 20 names, you would find many of the expected names. Ferenc Puskas, the Hungarian legend ranks 2nd with 84 goals, Pele ranks 3rd with 77 while Sandor Kocsis from those same Hungarian teams is 4th with 75. From 6th to 15th we see these familiar names: Gerd Muller ranks 8th with 68 goals, Ronaldo is 12th with 62 while current German striker Miroslav Klose is 13th with 61. Rounding out the top 20 we have Gabriel Batistuta, the Argentinian legend at 16th with 56 goals, with Romario and Czech giant Jan Koller tied for 19th with 55 goals each. Robbie Keane of Ireland, Didier Drogba of the Ivory Coast and Samuel Eto'o the Cameroonian all have a fair chance of making the top 20 before they retire.
Aside from those big names, the top 20 international scorers include some names you would never guess. Ali Daei of Iran is the only man to ever crack the 100 goal mark...with 109 in his career for Iran, he is number 1 all time. Bashar Abdullah recently retired from international duty with Kuwait while on 75 goals, good enough for 5th all time. Then there is the man at number 6 all time, Trinidadian striker, Stern John. This may come as a shock to many given Stern's club career, but while on International duty he has been stellar. Stern John sits on 69 goals and today, at age 34 (closer to 35), after an almost 2 year absence from the game, Stern John is in the Trinidad and Tobago lineup as they face India in a friendly international (his 110th cap for his nation). If Stern manages to score in what is surely one of his last opportunities he would become only the 6th man to make it to 70 goals in his career. Hossam Hassan of Egypt, Majed Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Kiatisuk Senamuang of Thailand are the remaining surprise names on the top 10, but those 3 as well as Bashar Abdullah (ranked 5th all time) have made the list with a strike rate less impressive than Stern John. Furthermore, Stern is the only player on the top 10 who is not retired, giving him opportunity to add to his tally. Infact, in the top 30, only Miroslav Klose (ranked 13th with 61 goals) and Robbie Keane (ranked 29th with 51 goals) remain active. Certainly Klose, as well as Drogba and Eto'o (both on 50 goals) stand a good chance of reaching 70 goals if given enough opportunity but as of today August 21st 2011, Stern John can become only the 6th man to reach that milestone.
Stern John began his international career on February 15th 1995 versus Finland. In that debut match he scored his first international goal and has not looked back since. His second international match came in November 1995 against Norway, and though he did not score, he drew a crucial penalty that was converted by Russell Latapy in a 3-2 win for Trinidad and Tobago over then 4th ranked Norway. In 1996 he got his first action versus Concacaf opponents and scored his first hatrick for Trinidad and Tobago that year in a World Cup qualifier against the Dominican Republic. By the time 1998 came around, Trinidad and Tobago weren't in the World Cup but were a team on the rise behind Stern John. He scored his first Gold Cup goals that year, notching a double against Honduras in a 3-1 win for T&T. That summer he scored 10 goals in the Caribbean Cup, including 4 against Dominica in the 1st round, 2 in the Semi Final against Haiti and 1 in the final against a Jamaican team that had recently returned from the World Cup a month before. By the end of 1998 he had scored 20 international goals in just 23 matches.
His club form at the time matched his international prowess, with him dominating the young MLS, leading the league in scoring for the 1998 season with 26 goals for the Columbus Crew. He ended his time with the Crew after the 1999 season with 44 goals for them in 55 appearances. His 18 goals in 1999 were tied for the league lead as well. Internationally, 1999 was great for Stern John and Trinidad and Tobago. Trinidad and Tobago won every game they played that year until a late December loss to Honduras and a big reason for it was their star striker, Stern John. He scored 10 times in 1999 to takes his international tally to 30 goals in 30 matches! Among the highlights that year were goals that helped T&T beat their rival Jamaica twice, another that helped beat South Africa, his second international hatrick, this time against Colombia in a 4-3 win and both goals in the 2-3 loss to Honduras. With the new millenium arriving, Trinidad and Tobago had a new star that took the focus off the likes of Dwight Yorke.
The team entered the year 2000 ranked in the high 40's and on the rise. Stern John entered the new millenium with a move from the US to England. Teams began planning for him and the year 2000 saw him scoring less with him failing to find the net in a 3-1 World Cup qualifying win over Haiti and a 4-0 World Cup qualifying win over Canada. He failed to score that year and was also not present on Trinidad and Tobago's Gold Cup squad that made it to the semi-finals. In 2001 though, he played a massive 18 times for his country, scoring 9 times. That summer Trinidad and Tobago achieved their highest ever World ranking, moving up to 25th in the World. They however famously collapsed in World Cup qualifying and most of John's goals came in losing efforts as Dwight Yorke and Russell Latapy retired for the first time. He played only twice for T&T in 2002 (in the Gold Cup) scoring once to bring his tally to 40 goals in 54 appearances. In his next 4 matches for country he scored 5 times, including a double versus Venezuela. Trinidad and Tobago ended 2003 with a friendly loss in Morocco with Stern having scored 45 goals in 59 matches.
The cycle for the 2006 World Cup was up and down for Stern John. In 2004, Trinidad and Tobago played a lot of opponents from other confederations and Stern John scored in almost every game. His 4 goals in the 3 games against Egypt, Iraq and Scotland were the only 4 goals the Soca Warriors managed to score. Following a loss to Northern Ireland, Stern John scored 6 goals in the 7 World Cup qualifiers he would play before 2004 ended. He had now scored 55 goals in 70 games for Trinidad and Tobago. 2005 began with Stern John scoring only once in 6 games and with the nation in last place in World Cup qualifying's Hexagonal, Stern John took the blame. In a year packed with matches, Stern was ever present in the lineup, whether it was a friendly, World Cup qualifier or Gold Cup match, his scoring touch was however missing. That is until T&T met Guatemala, in early September 2005 with everything on the line. With 5 minutes left and T&T down 2-1 and needing a win not a tie, Stern John scored twice to earn all 3 points in the most crucial victory of the World Cup qualifying campaign. He would go on to score the only goal in a 1-0 win at Panama and both goals in a 2-1 win versus Mexico to end the Hexagonal with his nation in 4th position. That put the Soca Warriors in a playoff for the final World Cup spot and even though Stern John did not score. T&T prevailed and qualified for the 2006 World Cup in Germany. Stern John's 12 goals in World Cup qualifying were a big reason why and he would get to play on the biggest stage. He ended 2005 with 64 goals in 90 matches. The matches versus Sweden, England and Paraguay were matches 96, 97 and 98 of Stern's career and he just narrowly missed scoring against England when John Terry cleared a 44th minute header just off the goal line. Stern would score another double, this time against St.Vincent and the Grenadines in his 99th match to bring his goal total to 67. He got his 100th cap on the 11th of October 2006 against Panama in a 2-0 win.
THE NUMBERS:
The black listing of players and scandal that followed the 2006 World Cup for Trinidad and Tobago may have affected Stern's eventual numbers, but we may never know for sure. He scored 67 goals before he turned 30 years of age. His final 2 goals for the Soca Warriors to this point came in a World Cup qualifying playoff against Bermuda in which T&T needed both goals badly winning the playoff 3-2. He scored 20 goals in World Cup qualifiers, 12 in the qualifiers for 2006 alone. He scored 3 times in his 7 Gold Cup appearances. and 17 times in 13 Caribbean Cup matches, 10 in 1998 alone. Trinidad won 51 and tied 16 of the 109 matches he played in to this point. He also managed to play against many teams that were not from Concacaf. Finland, Norway, South Africa, Colombia twice, Venezuela, Morocco, Egypt, Iraq, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Bahrain twice, Iceland, Peru, Wales, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Sweden, England twice and Paraguay. In those 22 matches he scored 12 goals, showing that he did it not only against the minnows of Concacaf. Against quality opponents from Concacaf he didn't do as well but still did well. Quality Concacaf opponents were narrowed down by me to Costa Rica, USA, Mexico, Honduras and T&T's biggest rival, Jamaica. He played 35 matches against this bunch and scored 14 times, an average of 2 goals every 5 games. Adding opponents from other confederations to quality Concacaf opponents he managed to score 26 goals in 57 matches, not a bad strike rate at all. This means he scored 43 goals in 52 matches against weak opponents regardless of match importance. Costa Rica and USA were his toughest opponents, against the two he played over 10 matches and managed to score just once, a penalty in the 2002 Gold Cup versus Costa Rica. Honduras were a shockingly good opponent for him, scoring 6 times in 5 games against them.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Week In Review
In my very first post I labelled this the summer of tournaments but I forgot to include the Under 20 World Cup in Colombia. The Under 20 Cup is the 5th and final tournament this summer before World Cup qualifiers kick off in September. In theory this tournament will be the first we see of near future stars, some as soon as the next World Cup. The host, Colombia, has a bright young star in Luis Muriel who may possibly team up with Radamel Falcao up front for Colombia in the next few years. Behind his play Colombia have managed to have a successful tournament so far. Young Spaniard Alvaro Vasquez has also been making a splash, recording a hatrick versus Australia in the first 18 minutes of the game. Brazil, Argentina, Portugal and Nigeria are also impressing in the tournament. Nigerian winger, Ahmed Musa, is also worth mentioning as well as Brazilian midfielders Dudu and Philippe Coutinho. The tournament is just at the quarter-final stage with Portugal facing Argentina, Mexico against Colombia, France versus Nigeria and Brazil against Spain. These matches will take place this weekend.
We've also had quite a bit of international friendlies this week with Wednesday being a FIFA date. The three I'll focus on in this post are Italy versus Spain, Brazil versus Germany and USA versus Mexico. First of all, Italy against Spain was intriguing for many reasons. The last two FIFA World Cup winners against each other, Spain having their best era ever and Italy having one of their worst. Italy won on a late goal by Aquilani, 2-1, in what can be considered a small shock. In my opinion its not really a shock but a sign of Italy's re-emergence. I wouldn't put much into Spain losing either as it was just a friendly. Anytime the World Champions lose is worth noting however, especially to a team that did as poorly as Italy did last year. At the end of the day Italy is still one of the big 4 nations and re-emergence should be expected.
USA vs Mexico was important for a number of reasons as well. Mexico has taken the upper hand in the rivalry in recent years after a short spell of dominance by the USA before that and Mexico recently won the Gold Cup final 4-2 (behind 0-2 early) defeating USA. This friendly took place in USA where a 2nd consecutive Mexico victory on US soil would be tragic to the host. This game was also Jurgen Klinsmann's first in charge of the US. The Mexicans took an early lead in the 17th on an opportunistic goal by Peralta and held the lead for most of the game until the 73rd minute when Brek Shea's hard work created the equalizing goal for USA. Twenty One year old Brek Shea was the bright spot in this game as well as the ever dependable Landon Donovan for the USA. Jurgen Klinsmann avoided defeat in his first game with the match ending at 1-1. The USA still did not get the win over Mexico on home soil though, that's important to note.
Finally, Germany took on Brazil and there's no need to explain why this was a big one. The 3-2 final score in the favour of Germany was only because Brazil's Neymar scored a 90th minute goal to bring the scoreline closer. I previously wrote of "The Death of Brazil" and if anything this score is telling. Now of course I understand that this was Germany and just a friendly, but when has the Brazilians being down 3-1 to anyone ever been acceptable? A loss to Germany this week, A penalty shootout loss to Paraguay in the Copa America, A World Cup Quarter Final loss to Holland a year ago...I stand by my assumption about Brazil, they have fallen a long way from where they were. The Brazilians are not horrible and have no fear of losing to the likes of Ecuador or even a team like Mexico perhaps, but against the World's elite over the past 5 years more times than not the Brazilians came out behind. We'll see how far the fall continues in the next few friendlies the Brazilians play over the next few months.
Two scheduled friendlies for Wednesday were cancelled for alarming reasons. The first being Trinidad and Tobago versus Haiti, the second England versus Holland. In the world's view Trinidad and Tobago versus Haiti is not of great importance, but it was supposed to be the first match in Haiti since the 2010 earthquake that destroyed most of the nation. The problem was funding for the Trinidad and Tobago national team, or lack thereof, with the nation being unable to afford the friendly. The problems of the 2006 World Cup aftermath and Jack Warner still linger and its a shame that a nation that competed in a World Cup just 5 years ago have fallen so far. It would have been Otto Pfister's first game in charge of Trinidad and Tobago. The England versus Holland game was cancelled due to riots in England, a real shame considering it would have been one of the most noteworthy friendlies of the week with a very anticipated final score. In a few weeks World Cup qualifying begins for many nations and we will get a better idea of which teams are of quality and which have no chance.
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| Luis Muriel |
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| Philippe Coutinho |
USA vs Mexico was important for a number of reasons as well. Mexico has taken the upper hand in the rivalry in recent years after a short spell of dominance by the USA before that and Mexico recently won the Gold Cup final 4-2 (behind 0-2 early) defeating USA. This friendly took place in USA where a 2nd consecutive Mexico victory on US soil would be tragic to the host. This game was also Jurgen Klinsmann's first in charge of the US. The Mexicans took an early lead in the 17th on an opportunistic goal by Peralta and held the lead for most of the game until the 73rd minute when Brek Shea's hard work created the equalizing goal for USA. Twenty One year old Brek Shea was the bright spot in this game as well as the ever dependable Landon Donovan for the USA. Jurgen Klinsmann avoided defeat in his first game with the match ending at 1-1. The USA still did not get the win over Mexico on home soil though, that's important to note.
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| Brek Shea |
Two scheduled friendlies for Wednesday were cancelled for alarming reasons. The first being Trinidad and Tobago versus Haiti, the second England versus Holland. In the world's view Trinidad and Tobago versus Haiti is not of great importance, but it was supposed to be the first match in Haiti since the 2010 earthquake that destroyed most of the nation. The problem was funding for the Trinidad and Tobago national team, or lack thereof, with the nation being unable to afford the friendly. The problems of the 2006 World Cup aftermath and Jack Warner still linger and its a shame that a nation that competed in a World Cup just 5 years ago have fallen so far. It would have been Otto Pfister's first game in charge of Trinidad and Tobago. The England versus Holland game was cancelled due to riots in England, a real shame considering it would have been one of the most noteworthy friendlies of the week with a very anticipated final score. In a few weeks World Cup qualifying begins for many nations and we will get a better idea of which teams are of quality and which have no chance.
Friday, August 5, 2011
World Cup Draw Review: Europe
I've saved the best for last. Finally, the draw from Europe as decided this past weekend in Brazil. The European confederation is the biggest in terms of quantity and everyone who tunes into the draw does so to see their own confederation and then Europe. So what kind of mouth watering matchups do we have in Europe this cycle? Well before we get to that I'll just quickly go through the European format. The 53 member nations were drawn into 9 groups. The winner of each group qualifies for the World Cup while the 8 best runners up will playoff for the 4 remaining spots. The worst of the 9 runners up will not be drawn into the playoffs and will be eliminated. The ranking of second placed teams will be based on the individual teams records versus the teams placed 1st to 5th in their group, this is because group I only has 5 teams while all others have 6. In all Europe will be awarded 13 spots at the next World Cup. Norway and Greece were shock 1st seeds and were the teams everyone wanted to be drawn with. France, Russia, Serbia, Sweden and Denmark were the toughest of the 2nd seeds and teams that most others wanted to avoid. This is how things fell into place in Europe.
Group A
Croatia, Serbia, Belgium and Scotland could all challenge in this group, while Macedonia and Wales should be the bottom feeders. At first glance this may not appear to be a very tough group but Macedonia and Wales are far from the easiest minnows that could have been drawn to this group. Belgium and Scotland are both fully capable of challenging for atleast the runner up spot in this group, if they fail then they will surely play spoiler. Croatia and Serbia will fight for the automatic World Cup berth but there's a rivalry between them that is sure to make their matchups as well as their fight for 1st competitive and thrilling. I will not rule out the possibility that the group winner will be the team that manages not to drop points against Scotland and Belgium. Focusing on the bigger picture will be more important in this group than most others. Belgium, whether they qualify or not, will be the key in this group.
Group B
Unlike Group A, Group B actually looks hard on paper and at first site is the hardest that the draw has produced. Italy, Denmark, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Armenia and Malta form this group. Italy, though they had a tough World Cup 2010, are 1st seeds for a reason and usually don't do poorly in qualifying. Whether they finish 1st or qualify through the playoffs as a runner up is another question. If they manage to falter and go the runner up route, Denmark and Czech Republic are more than capable of taking the top spot. Denmark also had a bad World Cup 2010 but are efficient enough to cruise through this group. The Czech Republic are a bit of a mystery, they usually do very well or fall apart before the end. If they play to the top of their game for the entire campaign they will be tough to stop. Bulgaria may be the key a lot like Belgium is in Group A. Not an immediate threat to qualify, Bulgaria can defeat any of the top 3 and at a crucial moment in qualifying that can change everything. Armenia and Malta should not put up much of a fight here. In this group keep an eye on the top 4 positions at all times as things should get interesting.
Group C
Group C can also be argued to be the toughest of the bunch. Germany, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Faroe Islands and Kazakhstan were drawn together for this group. There's not much I need to say about Germany, they are top class as always and regardless of opponents they should qualify. Having Germany in your group pretty much takes automatic qualification away but that doesn't mean that Sweden, Ireland or Austria will just roll over and die. Infact, Austria has played Germany tough recently in Euro Cup qualifying and the Germans were lucky to come away with a point. Austria always seems to play Germany tough for obvious reasons but I highly doubt that they are of the quality to challenge for a runner up position. Sweden and Ireland however, will challenge for that spot. Sweden are the most likely to get that position and they will undoubtedly give Germany a good run for the group's top spot. Ireland can take points away from anyone but usually struggle to dominate the minnows in these situations. Sweden and Ireland's faith may rely directly on how they do against each other. If Germany drop points and either Sweden or Ireland get on a roll we can have an interesting race. If not, the fight for second will make for some thrilling football.
Group D
Unlike the first 3 groups, this one does not look like it will be much of a fight. World Cup 2010 runner up, The Netherlands will be joined by Turkey, Hungary, Romania, Estonia and Andorra. The Netherlands are clear favorites to win the group and could do so with full points as they did last time. Turkey technically are the most likely to challenge them and historically have done well against the Netherlands. Turkey have not exactly followed up their World Cup 2002 performance with success but can challenge when at their best. Hungary are a mystery at the moment. They have not qualified for a World Cup since the 80's and have not finished as a runner up since 1998 but they have a young talented team and have been improving. Romania have not made a World Cup since 1998 but are in the perfect group to try make it back to the big tournament. If Turkey slip and they play Holland at the right time, Romania can earn the runners up spot and try qualify through the playoffs. Estonia and Andorra won't challenge much as minnows but can play spoiler potentially.
Group E
Above I mentioned that Norway and Greece were seeded and Group E was the first to be seeded by one of these teams, Norway. Slovenia, Switzerland, Albania, Cyprus and Iceland joins the Norwegians in the group. Norway, despite not qualifying for a World Cup since 1998 will benefit from being seeded in this somewhat simple group. Slovenia and Switzerland both qualified for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa and will try to do the same this time around. Norway, Slovenia and Switzerland all have a chance to win the group and there's not much seperation between them. This will be one of those groups where the team that ends up 3rd will regret not seizing the opportunity. Albania, Cyprus and Iceland pose no direct threat to the top 3 but will play a direct roll in who qualifies by taking away points. Albania should be top spoiler.
Group F
Portugal and Russia are the toughest teams in Group F. Israel, Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan and Luxembourg round out the group. Israel and Northern Ireland pose a direct threat to the top 2 teams in terms of stealing points. The best chance for either of those 2 nations however will be to try get into the playoffs and hope for a favorable matchup. Azerbaijan and Luxembourg will play the role of minnows well. Portugal and Russia will challenge each other directly and 1 match can end up deciding who goes directly to Brazil and who goes to the playoffs. Russia has not played in a World Cup since 2002, but I think this group gives them their best opportunity since.
Group G
Group G is by far the easiest group overall in Europe and this is a direct result of Greece's seeding. Greece, Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithuania, Latvia and Liechtenstein form the group. Bosnia and Herzegovina interest me the most in this group. Bosnia have been knocking on the door for quite some time and this may be their final chance to qualify for the World Cup while they still have this generation of players. The group definitely allows for the possibility of Bosnia doing well, but Slovakia and Greece will have to falter a bit to allow that. Both Slovakia and Greece participated in the last World Cup and are going to be favoured. Slovakia and Greece will have to focus on each other's movements up and down the table while keeping an eye on Bosnia. Lithuania and Latvia are not poor in quality and should have some say in the way the group plays out. Lithuania could actually challenge for a runners up spot if they play to the best of their abilities, but that's a long shot right now. Liechtenstein can also produce a shock result that can prove costly to one of the contenders.
Group H
After 4 not so spectacular groups we have a pretty interesting one in Group H. England are the top seeds in the group, followed by upstart Montenegro. A pair of 2006 qualifiers, Ukraine and Poland, can also compete for a qualifying spot all the way to the final matchday and Moldova and San Marino round out the group. We all know of England and their capabilities so it's no surprise that they are expected to qualify from this group. Whether or not they do it with ease, or at all, is another story. The English are not a poor side at all, the group is just extremely tricky and these kinds of groups can cause a lot of problems for many of the top teams. Montenegro are a mystery to me, they were part of Serbia and Montenegro when they qualified for the 2006 World Cup but a small part at that. They have had good results in the years since their formation as a team though and earned their high seeding. Former Yugoslav republics tend to do well in World Cup qualifying however, so Montenegro should be paid attention to. While Moldova are not a threat to qualify and San Marino will shock the world if they earn a single point, Poland and Ukraine are legitimate threats. Both nations co-host Euro Cup 2012 and therefore have not been playing those current qualifiers, but once playing that tournament at home they should be ready to compete and could give England a run for their money. It will be interesting to see who plays who on the final matchday.
Group I
Finally we get to Group I, the 5 team group and what a group it is. Defending FIFA World Cup champion, Spain and 2006 World Cup runner up, France will battle it out for the top spot. The three remaining teams in the group are Belarus, Georgia and Finland...far from the easiest group. It's inevitable that one of the top 2 will have to go through the playoffs if they are to make it to the World Cup. Belarus can make things very interesting if they were to challenge for that runner up spot essentially eliminating Spain or France, could you imagine a World Cup without its defending champion? Georgia and Finland will not be pushovers either by any means and this group will most likely go down to the final matchday, if only to seperate 1st from 2nd.
Group A
Croatia, Serbia, Belgium and Scotland could all challenge in this group, while Macedonia and Wales should be the bottom feeders. At first glance this may not appear to be a very tough group but Macedonia and Wales are far from the easiest minnows that could have been drawn to this group. Belgium and Scotland are both fully capable of challenging for atleast the runner up spot in this group, if they fail then they will surely play spoiler. Croatia and Serbia will fight for the automatic World Cup berth but there's a rivalry between them that is sure to make their matchups as well as their fight for 1st competitive and thrilling. I will not rule out the possibility that the group winner will be the team that manages not to drop points against Scotland and Belgium. Focusing on the bigger picture will be more important in this group than most others. Belgium, whether they qualify or not, will be the key in this group.
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| Belgium |
Unlike Group A, Group B actually looks hard on paper and at first site is the hardest that the draw has produced. Italy, Denmark, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Armenia and Malta form this group. Italy, though they had a tough World Cup 2010, are 1st seeds for a reason and usually don't do poorly in qualifying. Whether they finish 1st or qualify through the playoffs as a runner up is another question. If they manage to falter and go the runner up route, Denmark and Czech Republic are more than capable of taking the top spot. Denmark also had a bad World Cup 2010 but are efficient enough to cruise through this group. The Czech Republic are a bit of a mystery, they usually do very well or fall apart before the end. If they play to the top of their game for the entire campaign they will be tough to stop. Bulgaria may be the key a lot like Belgium is in Group A. Not an immediate threat to qualify, Bulgaria can defeat any of the top 3 and at a crucial moment in qualifying that can change everything. Armenia and Malta should not put up much of a fight here. In this group keep an eye on the top 4 positions at all times as things should get interesting.
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| Denmark |
Group C can also be argued to be the toughest of the bunch. Germany, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Faroe Islands and Kazakhstan were drawn together for this group. There's not much I need to say about Germany, they are top class as always and regardless of opponents they should qualify. Having Germany in your group pretty much takes automatic qualification away but that doesn't mean that Sweden, Ireland or Austria will just roll over and die. Infact, Austria has played Germany tough recently in Euro Cup qualifying and the Germans were lucky to come away with a point. Austria always seems to play Germany tough for obvious reasons but I highly doubt that they are of the quality to challenge for a runner up position. Sweden and Ireland however, will challenge for that spot. Sweden are the most likely to get that position and they will undoubtedly give Germany a good run for the group's top spot. Ireland can take points away from anyone but usually struggle to dominate the minnows in these situations. Sweden and Ireland's faith may rely directly on how they do against each other. If Germany drop points and either Sweden or Ireland get on a roll we can have an interesting race. If not, the fight for second will make for some thrilling football.
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| Sweden |
Unlike the first 3 groups, this one does not look like it will be much of a fight. World Cup 2010 runner up, The Netherlands will be joined by Turkey, Hungary, Romania, Estonia and Andorra. The Netherlands are clear favorites to win the group and could do so with full points as they did last time. Turkey technically are the most likely to challenge them and historically have done well against the Netherlands. Turkey have not exactly followed up their World Cup 2002 performance with success but can challenge when at their best. Hungary are a mystery at the moment. They have not qualified for a World Cup since the 80's and have not finished as a runner up since 1998 but they have a young talented team and have been improving. Romania have not made a World Cup since 1998 but are in the perfect group to try make it back to the big tournament. If Turkey slip and they play Holland at the right time, Romania can earn the runners up spot and try qualify through the playoffs. Estonia and Andorra won't challenge much as minnows but can play spoiler potentially.
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| Holland |
Above I mentioned that Norway and Greece were seeded and Group E was the first to be seeded by one of these teams, Norway. Slovenia, Switzerland, Albania, Cyprus and Iceland joins the Norwegians in the group. Norway, despite not qualifying for a World Cup since 1998 will benefit from being seeded in this somewhat simple group. Slovenia and Switzerland both qualified for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa and will try to do the same this time around. Norway, Slovenia and Switzerland all have a chance to win the group and there's not much seperation between them. This will be one of those groups where the team that ends up 3rd will regret not seizing the opportunity. Albania, Cyprus and Iceland pose no direct threat to the top 3 but will play a direct roll in who qualifies by taking away points. Albania should be top spoiler.
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| Switzerland |
Portugal and Russia are the toughest teams in Group F. Israel, Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan and Luxembourg round out the group. Israel and Northern Ireland pose a direct threat to the top 2 teams in terms of stealing points. The best chance for either of those 2 nations however will be to try get into the playoffs and hope for a favorable matchup. Azerbaijan and Luxembourg will play the role of minnows well. Portugal and Russia will challenge each other directly and 1 match can end up deciding who goes directly to Brazil and who goes to the playoffs. Russia has not played in a World Cup since 2002, but I think this group gives them their best opportunity since.
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| Russia |
Group G is by far the easiest group overall in Europe and this is a direct result of Greece's seeding. Greece, Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithuania, Latvia and Liechtenstein form the group. Bosnia and Herzegovina interest me the most in this group. Bosnia have been knocking on the door for quite some time and this may be their final chance to qualify for the World Cup while they still have this generation of players. The group definitely allows for the possibility of Bosnia doing well, but Slovakia and Greece will have to falter a bit to allow that. Both Slovakia and Greece participated in the last World Cup and are going to be favoured. Slovakia and Greece will have to focus on each other's movements up and down the table while keeping an eye on Bosnia. Lithuania and Latvia are not poor in quality and should have some say in the way the group plays out. Lithuania could actually challenge for a runners up spot if they play to the best of their abilities, but that's a long shot right now. Liechtenstein can also produce a shock result that can prove costly to one of the contenders.
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| Bosnia and Herzegovina |
After 4 not so spectacular groups we have a pretty interesting one in Group H. England are the top seeds in the group, followed by upstart Montenegro. A pair of 2006 qualifiers, Ukraine and Poland, can also compete for a qualifying spot all the way to the final matchday and Moldova and San Marino round out the group. We all know of England and their capabilities so it's no surprise that they are expected to qualify from this group. Whether or not they do it with ease, or at all, is another story. The English are not a poor side at all, the group is just extremely tricky and these kinds of groups can cause a lot of problems for many of the top teams. Montenegro are a mystery to me, they were part of Serbia and Montenegro when they qualified for the 2006 World Cup but a small part at that. They have had good results in the years since their formation as a team though and earned their high seeding. Former Yugoslav republics tend to do well in World Cup qualifying however, so Montenegro should be paid attention to. While Moldova are not a threat to qualify and San Marino will shock the world if they earn a single point, Poland and Ukraine are legitimate threats. Both nations co-host Euro Cup 2012 and therefore have not been playing those current qualifiers, but once playing that tournament at home they should be ready to compete and could give England a run for their money. It will be interesting to see who plays who on the final matchday.
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| Ukraine |
Group I
Finally we get to Group I, the 5 team group and what a group it is. Defending FIFA World Cup champion, Spain and 2006 World Cup runner up, France will battle it out for the top spot. The three remaining teams in the group are Belarus, Georgia and Finland...far from the easiest group. It's inevitable that one of the top 2 will have to go through the playoffs if they are to make it to the World Cup. Belarus can make things very interesting if they were to challenge for that runner up spot essentially eliminating Spain or France, could you imagine a World Cup without its defending champion? Georgia and Finland will not be pushovers either by any means and this group will most likely go down to the final matchday, if only to seperate 1st from 2nd.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
World Cup Draw Review: Concacaf
Concacaf has finally gotten a system that seems fair and likely to qualify the best teams to the World Cup. There was still a problem this time around however, typical for the region. The problem is that unlike the rest of the world Concacaf chose to use the rankings from March for their seeding, four months prior to the draw. The direct result of this unwise choice was Cuba being seeded while Panama, El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago and Canada had to go through the first group round.
The first group round makes sence for Concacaf. Six groups of four teams in which only the group winner progresses. This gives a lot of the smaller nations a chance to play more than just 2 games and against more than just one opponent. While the eventual result of most of these groups are obvious, in the long run I think the region will benefit from more matches for the smaller nations. The draw in Brazil this past weekend formed the groups for this first group round as well as the Semi Round that will follow.
Group A is made up of El Salvador, Suriname, Cayman Islands and the Dominican Republic. El Salvador made an amazing run all the way to the final round (the Hexagonal) of qualifying last cycle and though it was unexpected they did well to represent themselves. Suriname made it to the Semi Round last time in what was also an unexpected performance. At that stage they put up little fight though. The Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic have not had much previous qualifying success and group play in the World Cup is a new experience for both. El Salvador are a force at home versus the region's best and should not have much problem versus opponents of this quality. I fully expect them to win the group and qualify for the Semi Round with ease.
2006 qualifiers, Trinidad and Tobago were drawn into Group B where they will meet Guyana, Barbados and Bermuda. Given the talent in this round, this group is one of the strongest. Trinidad and Tobago qualified for the World Cup in 2006 but since then have been on a downward spiral and have not even played a match this year. They have played Guyana a few times over the last few years however and that may go a long way for them. Guyana has never made it to the Semi Round and even with Trinidad and Tobago's struggles they will most likely not make it past this group. Barbados made it to the Semi Round in the World Cup 2002 qualifying cycle and even managed a victory over Costa Rica to open their campaign. After that historic win however they were not able to record another victory. Since then Barbados has fallen a bit and will most likely not be much of a threat on the group. Bermuda has not done well in World Cup qualifying since the 1994 cycle but the last time around they managed to beat Trinidad and Tobago in Trinidad. If they can repeat that feat it will go a long way in this group. Expect a close group but without many major upsets.
Group C should be called the group of minnows. Panama, who are one of the region's best currently, will face Dominica, Nicaragua and the Bahamas. None of those three have ever made it to the Semi Round and rarely qualify for regional tournaments. The Bahamas are a super minnow and will most likely not earn a point. Nicaragua qualified for a Gold Cup not too long ago but are usually not a threat in World Cup qualifying. Dominica, regardless of being second seeds, are just as bad as Nicaragua if not worst. Panama made it all the way to the Hexagonal in the 2006 cycle but followed it up by failing to qualify for the Semi Round last time around. Panama should win the group with full points and move on.
Canada, St. Kitts and Nevis, Puerto Rico and St.Lucia make up Group D. Puerto Rico and St.Lucia are true minnows while St.Kitts are good enough to beat both but not beat Canada once. Canada, traditional underachievers, are used to the Semi Round and should be back there again. They have not qualified for the Hexagonal the last 3 times though, not since the 1998 cycle. St.Kitts played in the Semi Round in the 2006 cycle but were embarrased by Mexico there. If there's any doubt as to who will win the group going into the final match, St.Kitts having to play in Canada in November will settle it.
If there's a tough group in this round then Group E wins the title hands down. Grenada, Guatemala, St.Vincent and the Grenadines and Belize make up a thrilling group. Grenada have done well enough over the past 5 years to warrant being seeded in this round but will have their work cut out for them. Their toughest opponents are Guatemala, who are regulars at the Semi Round and true favorites to win the group by most. St.Vincent and the Grenadines had a great level of success for a nation of their size from the 1994 cycle to the 2006 cycle and no one can take their reputation away from them. They made the Semi Round in every one of those 4 cycles before failing in the 2010 cycle. Belize will bring up the rear but are far from the easiest minnow that could've been drawn into the group. While Guatemala are favorites they will play their final 2 matches against Grenada with the last being in Grenada. Playing in the Caribbean is never an easy task for Central American nations and could prove decisive for Guatemala. St.Vincent and the Grenadines however may benefit from being placed as a third seed. They play their final 2 matches against Belize and if they manage to keep things close going into those final 2 games it may put them in great position to win the group. They're also familiar enough with Grenada to not be threatened by their ranking.
The final preliminery group includes Haiti, Antigua, Curacao and the US Virgin Islands. Overall this is the weakest group and there may not be much outside interest here. The US Virgin Islands will end play with 0 points and I can garauntee that before a ball is kicked. Curacao played formerly as the Netherland Antilles, well atleast all their players did before the Antilles broke apart. Antigua, while improving over the years, can threaten Haiti for the group but if they get past then they will suffer a harsh reality upon reaching the next round. Haiti would usually be the outright favorites in the group but after the tragedy that struck their nation last year...who knows what kind of effort they will put forth.
The Semi Round is where the quality of football gets higher and we seperate the men from the boys. Group A includes the USA and Jamaica from the seeded teams and most likely Haiti and Guatemala from the groups I listed above. The USA will of course finish top 2 and qualify from this group to the Hexagonal. Guatemala (if they mak it to this stage) will put up a nice challenge, but truthfully Jamaica are as good, if not better, than their 1998 team that qualified for the World Cup in France. Haiti, if they make it past the previous round, will finish last in the group.
Group B in the Semi Round should be the toughest. It involves Mexico and Costa Rica from the seeded pots and most likely Trinidad and Tobago and El Salvador as winners of their preliminery groups. Mexico are traditionally the region's best and Costa Rica can be as strong as the top seeds on any given day. Trinidad and Tobago realistically should not pose much of a threat to either of the top 2, while El Salvador should be dominant at home but not good enough overall. If all teams play at their best though, expect fireworks and surprises.
Group C will be the weakest of the bunch overall. Honduras and Cuba were the seeded teams assigned to this group and they are expected to be joined by Canada and Panama. Honduras are not far removed from their World Cup appearance in 2010 but a Gold Cup loss to Jamaica would suggest that they are closer to the second seeds than they are to USA and Mexico in quality. Cuba, while seeded, will in all likelihood finish last in the group. They don't travel well, as you would expect wth a country in their situation, and they just don't have the players to compete against the better teams in the region. Canada has a nice opportunity to make it to the Hexagonal for the first time since the 1998 cycle, but they usually underachieve and Panama can cause them trouble. Panama are my pick to finish 2nd in this group as they have been improving steadily since 2004 and the draw was favorable to them.
I will revisit these groups once we get a clearer picture of what these groups will looks like. The preliminery round will begin on September 2nd and the road to Brazil will begin to take shape in North America. By the end of the year we will know for sure what the Semi Round groups will look like and what to expect heading deeper into this cycle.
The first group round makes sence for Concacaf. Six groups of four teams in which only the group winner progresses. This gives a lot of the smaller nations a chance to play more than just 2 games and against more than just one opponent. While the eventual result of most of these groups are obvious, in the long run I think the region will benefit from more matches for the smaller nations. The draw in Brazil this past weekend formed the groups for this first group round as well as the Semi Round that will follow.
Group A is made up of El Salvador, Suriname, Cayman Islands and the Dominican Republic. El Salvador made an amazing run all the way to the final round (the Hexagonal) of qualifying last cycle and though it was unexpected they did well to represent themselves. Suriname made it to the Semi Round last time in what was also an unexpected performance. At that stage they put up little fight though. The Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic have not had much previous qualifying success and group play in the World Cup is a new experience for both. El Salvador are a force at home versus the region's best and should not have much problem versus opponents of this quality. I fully expect them to win the group and qualify for the Semi Round with ease.
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| El Salvador |
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| Trinidad and Tobago |
Canada, St. Kitts and Nevis, Puerto Rico and St.Lucia make up Group D. Puerto Rico and St.Lucia are true minnows while St.Kitts are good enough to beat both but not beat Canada once. Canada, traditional underachievers, are used to the Semi Round and should be back there again. They have not qualified for the Hexagonal the last 3 times though, not since the 1998 cycle. St.Kitts played in the Semi Round in the 2006 cycle but were embarrased by Mexico there. If there's any doubt as to who will win the group going into the final match, St.Kitts having to play in Canada in November will settle it.
If there's a tough group in this round then Group E wins the title hands down. Grenada, Guatemala, St.Vincent and the Grenadines and Belize make up a thrilling group. Grenada have done well enough over the past 5 years to warrant being seeded in this round but will have their work cut out for them. Their toughest opponents are Guatemala, who are regulars at the Semi Round and true favorites to win the group by most. St.Vincent and the Grenadines had a great level of success for a nation of their size from the 1994 cycle to the 2006 cycle and no one can take their reputation away from them. They made the Semi Round in every one of those 4 cycles before failing in the 2010 cycle. Belize will bring up the rear but are far from the easiest minnow that could've been drawn into the group. While Guatemala are favorites they will play their final 2 matches against Grenada with the last being in Grenada. Playing in the Caribbean is never an easy task for Central American nations and could prove decisive for Guatemala. St.Vincent and the Grenadines however may benefit from being placed as a third seed. They play their final 2 matches against Belize and if they manage to keep things close going into those final 2 games it may put them in great position to win the group. They're also familiar enough with Grenada to not be threatened by their ranking.
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| Grenada |
The Semi Round is where the quality of football gets higher and we seperate the men from the boys. Group A includes the USA and Jamaica from the seeded teams and most likely Haiti and Guatemala from the groups I listed above. The USA will of course finish top 2 and qualify from this group to the Hexagonal. Guatemala (if they mak it to this stage) will put up a nice challenge, but truthfully Jamaica are as good, if not better, than their 1998 team that qualified for the World Cup in France. Haiti, if they make it past the previous round, will finish last in the group.
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| Jamaica |
Group C will be the weakest of the bunch overall. Honduras and Cuba were the seeded teams assigned to this group and they are expected to be joined by Canada and Panama. Honduras are not far removed from their World Cup appearance in 2010 but a Gold Cup loss to Jamaica would suggest that they are closer to the second seeds than they are to USA and Mexico in quality. Cuba, while seeded, will in all likelihood finish last in the group. They don't travel well, as you would expect wth a country in their situation, and they just don't have the players to compete against the better teams in the region. Canada has a nice opportunity to make it to the Hexagonal for the first time since the 1998 cycle, but they usually underachieve and Panama can cause them trouble. Panama are my pick to finish 2nd in this group as they have been improving steadily since 2004 and the draw was favorable to them.
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| Cuba |
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
World Cup Draw Review: Asia and Oceania with a touch of South America
Asia and Oceania are still not merged into one confederation and I have no idea why! Before we get to those confederations though, let's take a quick look at South America. I have spent a big part of the summer watching and writing about South American football, so I have a fairly good idea of where each team is in terms of quality. Brazil qualifies automatically as hosts and therefore will not take part in the qualifiers this time around. The other 9 South American teams however will face off in one big 9 team group as usual. There are 4.5 spots in the World Cup on the line. That means 4 teams qualify automatically with the 5th placing team playing off with an Asian team for a spot in the World Cup. We can potentially have 6 South American teams in the World Cup with Brazil added to those possibly 5 spots. 6 teams out of the overall 10 nations seems like a bit much to me, but oh well lets see how that works. With 9 teams facing each other in 1 big group we will always have 1 team off on a matchday. Personally I expect to see Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Colombia to qualify. Chile should get the 5th spot with Ecuador challenging them all the way.
In Asia we have already had 2 rounds of football to narrow the field of teams down to 20. These 20 teams were drawn into 5 groups over the weekend. The top 2 teams in each group will move on to the next round. This system protects the regions top teams to some extent while allowing for minor upsets in which teams move on.
Group A drew China, Jordan, Iraq and Singapore together. China, Jordan and Iraq should all be in the fight for the top 2 spots. Singapore I don't see moving on but they may not exactly be walkovers either. Iraq and Jordan will open against each other in Iraq and it will be a good opportunity for either side to start off their campaign on a strong note. Jordan needs the fast start more as they finish their campaign against Iraq at home and then on the road against China.
Group B brings South Korea, Kuwait, U.A.E and Lebanon together in another interesting group. South Korea should be favored and even with a slip up should be able to finish top 2 in the group. Kuwait and the U.A.E will battle for the other spot while Lebanon will add some excitement as they pick up points. The key matchup here is U.A.E hosting South Korea in their 4th match. If U.A.E are able to get points in this matchup it will go a long way in determining if they get one of the top 2 spots.
As interesting as the first two groups may be, Group C is the group of death in Asia. Japan, North Korea, Uzbekistan and Syria are sure to excite in a group that could see any of the 4 nations moving on to the next round. Japan of course are favorites but all of their 3 opponents are capable of qualifying to the final round along with them. North Korea hosts Japan in the 5th matchday in a very important match for them, while Uzbekistan will try to defeat Syria at home the same day to avoid needing too much versus Japan in the final match.
Group D, involves Australia, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Thailand. Saudi Arabia usually qualifies for the final round and up until the last World Cup they were good enough to qualify for the big tournament. They are very shaky nowadays though and missing the final round is not out of the question. Australia should be the favorite in the group and I have no doubt they will win it. Oman and Thailand are a bit mysterious but Saudi Arabia should be weary of both. If Oman can beat Saudi Arabia at home in their opening game they will get an early strong hold on the 2nd spot. They face Thailand second and play two of their final three games at home.
Iran, Qatar, Bahrain and Indonesia make up Group E. Indonesia poses no real threat here but the group will not be short on excitement. Iran are the top seeds in the group and have qualified for World Cups recently, while Qatar was just awarded the hosting rights for the 2022 World Cup and are expected to atleast make the final round. Then there's Bahrain. Bahrain made it all the way to the intercontinental playoffs the last two times they attempted to qualify. They faced Trinidad and Tobago in the 2006 playoff for the final World Cup spot and in 2010 they battled with New Zealand. Both times they lost barely. This cycle they go into this semi round as a third seeded team but something tells me they'll have a lot to say about who progresses and who doesn't from this group. They travel to Qatar in the 5th matchday then finish at home against Indonesia, so that game against Qatar will essentially decide whether they move on or not.
In Oceania, there's no real secret that New Zealand will win the confederation and represent them in the intercontinental playoff. Fiji, Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea will try prevent this but I doubt they will succeed. New Zealand's main treat on their way to possible World Cup qualification is going to be the 4th placed Concacaf team. New Zealand can expect to meet Costa Rica or Honduras or possibly Jamaica in that intercontinental playoff and personally I don't think they can defeat any of the three....we are a long way away from that however, and a lot can change. We'll see how it works out.
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| Colombia National Team |
Group A drew China, Jordan, Iraq and Singapore together. China, Jordan and Iraq should all be in the fight for the top 2 spots. Singapore I don't see moving on but they may not exactly be walkovers either. Iraq and Jordan will open against each other in Iraq and it will be a good opportunity for either side to start off their campaign on a strong note. Jordan needs the fast start more as they finish their campaign against Iraq at home and then on the road against China.
Group B brings South Korea, Kuwait, U.A.E and Lebanon together in another interesting group. South Korea should be favored and even with a slip up should be able to finish top 2 in the group. Kuwait and the U.A.E will battle for the other spot while Lebanon will add some excitement as they pick up points. The key matchup here is U.A.E hosting South Korea in their 4th match. If U.A.E are able to get points in this matchup it will go a long way in determining if they get one of the top 2 spots.
As interesting as the first two groups may be, Group C is the group of death in Asia. Japan, North Korea, Uzbekistan and Syria are sure to excite in a group that could see any of the 4 nations moving on to the next round. Japan of course are favorites but all of their 3 opponents are capable of qualifying to the final round along with them. North Korea hosts Japan in the 5th matchday in a very important match for them, while Uzbekistan will try to defeat Syria at home the same day to avoid needing too much versus Japan in the final match.
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| Japan Team |
Iran, Qatar, Bahrain and Indonesia make up Group E. Indonesia poses no real threat here but the group will not be short on excitement. Iran are the top seeds in the group and have qualified for World Cups recently, while Qatar was just awarded the hosting rights for the 2022 World Cup and are expected to atleast make the final round. Then there's Bahrain. Bahrain made it all the way to the intercontinental playoffs the last two times they attempted to qualify. They faced Trinidad and Tobago in the 2006 playoff for the final World Cup spot and in 2010 they battled with New Zealand. Both times they lost barely. This cycle they go into this semi round as a third seeded team but something tells me they'll have a lot to say about who progresses and who doesn't from this group. They travel to Qatar in the 5th matchday then finish at home against Indonesia, so that game against Qatar will essentially decide whether they move on or not.
In Oceania, there's no real secret that New Zealand will win the confederation and represent them in the intercontinental playoff. Fiji, Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea will try prevent this but I doubt they will succeed. New Zealand's main treat on their way to possible World Cup qualification is going to be the 4th placed Concacaf team. New Zealand can expect to meet Costa Rica or Honduras or possibly Jamaica in that intercontinental playoff and personally I don't think they can defeat any of the three....we are a long way away from that however, and a lot can change. We'll see how it works out.
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