Group A: (El Salvador, Suriname, Dominican Republic, Cayman Islands)
El Salvador came into qualifying as favourites in group A with little resistance expected from the remaining group members. They however met a bit of resistance in their opening match against the Dominican Republic. They went into halftime of the match tied 0-0 and ended with a slim 3-2 win over an opponent that was not expected to compete. Three points in this stage of qualifying is however more important than goal differential and they got the expected win. Suriname beat the Cayman Islands 1-0 in the other opening match, a scoreline that was also closer than expected. The following week the nations met again in the 2nd group matches. In another surprising performance, Dominican Republic managed to earn a point against Suriname in a 1-1 tie. El Salvador bounced back well in the other match beating the Cayman Islands by the score of 4-1.
What Have We Learned?
None of the groups four competing teams are good enough to even play spoiler in the next round. El Salvador showed that they're still inconsistant and the opening 3-2 win over Dominican Republic makes you question if they are still the force they've always been at home? Suriname, currently in 2nd place with 4 points, have scored twice from two penalties. They struggled to beat both of the group's minnows and if they manage to qualify from this group they will not earn a point in the next round. The Dominican Republic have been the most impressive of the group given previous expectations but are only one loss away from elimination. The Cayman Islands won't compete anymore than they have so far.
Group B: (Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, Barbados, Bermuda)
The opening games of this group weren't as close as the final scorelines would lead you to believe. Trinidad and Tobago took on Bermuda to open their campaign, in a rematch of a 2010 qualifier. Bermuda beat T&T in Trinidad the last time around before falling at home in the playoff and tried to duplicate the result. This time however the match was one sided but despite many opportunities, T&T couldn't find the net. In the end a 45th minute goal was all that seperated the sides, 1-0 to Trinidad and Tobago. In the other match, Guyana answered all previous questions about how evenly they would be matched with Barbados. The Guyanese won the opening contest 2-0 without any threat of losing. In the 2nd matches, T&T took on Barbados and Guyana met Bermuda. The matchups were different but the winners and margin of victory remained the same. Trinidad and Tobago beat Barbados away 2-0 while Guyana beat Bermuda at home 2-1.
What Have We Learned?
This is a two team race. Trinidad and Tobago look solid despite not playing for almost a year before the start of qualifying. They are yet to concede a goal and have won both of their matches in one sided affairs. Guyana however currently sit in 1st place thanks to their goal difference. The only goal they have conceded thus far was a 90th minute goal by Bermuda. They are stronger than expected and could provide good competition for Trinidad and Tobago. Barbados are worst than expected and in all probability will finish the group in last place after 2 lackluster performances while failing to score. Bermuda for what its worth have shown for the 2nd cycle in a row that they are not typical minnows and will give anyone a tough match...they are 1 loss away from elimination however.
Group C: (Panama, Nicaragua, Dominica)
The Bahamas withdrew before the competition started and even if they had competed they would have most likely embarrased themselves in the 6 scheduled matches. The remaining 3 teams though will battle it out for 1 spot in the next round of qualifying. In the opening match of the group, Nicaragua beat Dominica by the score of 2-0 in an away game. Four days later they faced the fancied Panamanians at home but despite playing a close game they lost 2-1.
What Have We Learned?
Losing one team has really made the group unbalanced and less interesting. The fact that 2 of the 3 remaining teams are Dominica and Nicaragua makes the group one sided as well. Panama will win the group easily, but the lack of competition may not do much to prepare them for the next round.
Group D: (Canada, St.Lucia, St.Kitts, Puerto Rico)
Canada got a very favourable draw, not just for this round but for the following one as well. They capitalized on their good fortune by winning their opening match 4-1 (after being tied 1-1 after 7 minutes) against St.Lucia. St.Kitts hosted an improved Puerto Rico in the other opener and surprisingly St.Kitts were held at home 0-0 by the baseball loving Puerto Ricans. Going into the 2nd match, Canada were already alone in 1st place and they did well to hold on to their group lead by beating Puerto Rico 3-0. In a matchup of Saints, St.Lucia hosted St.Kitts but went behind 3-0 in the first 15 minutes, eventually losing 4-2.
What Have We Learned?
Canada have had a fast start and should run away with this group before the final round of games. St.Lucia have given up 4 goals in every qualifier they've played so far including the preliminaries, they also have a knack for giving up early goals. They will always be involved in exciting matches, but unfortunately for them they will lose most of them. St.Kitts did themselves no favours tying Puerto Rico early on. They will be playing catch up to Canada the whole way and any other dropped points will seal the group. Puerto Rico are on the brink of elimination but have done well for themselves to this point. They managed to go almost a game and a half without conceding a goal but they won't do much to finish above 3rd.
Group E: (Grenada, Guatemala, St.Vincent and the Grenadines, Belize)
Coming into this round, Group E was looked upon as by far the closest and the most interesting group. Who would have thought that 2 games into play we would be shocked and surprised in the most shocking way. The shock started with the very first match, when Grenada hosted Belize. Grenada has played in the last 2 Gold Cups and almost beat Costa Rica at home in qualifying for the 2010 World Cup, they were also seeded for this group. So when they lost 0-3 to Belize at home to open their campaign, it was more than just a little surprising. In the other opener, Guatemala hosted St.Vincent and the Grenadines. Past their best years, St.Vincent aren't the respectable side they were in the 90's and early 2000's but they are still capable of an upset. That upset did not come in their trip to Central America though, they lost soundly 4-0 to the Guatemalans. Four days later, Belize hosted their Central American opponents, Guatemala and lost 2-1 in a closer than expected match. Almost 2 weeks later on September 18th, St.Vincent would host Grenada in their 2nd match. Both were coming off blowout losses, shameful for two of the more respected Caribbean nations. St.Vincent protected their home ground of Arnos Vale and won 2-1.
What Have We Learned?
Grenada will not qualify from this group and infact will do well to finish above the bottom of the group. They have been outplayed thoroughly and are yet to meet Guatemala. Guatemala have filled the role that Grenada left void, they have full points from their matches and should qualify for the next round as many would have expected before hand. St.Vincent and the Grenadines, while not the team they once were, may be motivated by their win over Grenada and if they can hold Guatemala to a draw in their next home game they stand a small chance. Belize, like Puerto Rico, Bermuda and the Dominican Republic have shown that they are more than just minnows. Unlike those teams however, Belize stands a real chance in this group. They finish their schedule with two games against St.Vincent and the Grenadines and still play Grenada and Guatemala once. Currently in 2nd place, they can have a nice run in the group.
Group F: (Haiti, Antigua and Barbuda, Curacao, US Virgin Islands)
Group F is like no other group in this round. A clear minnow, a clear super minnow and two teams of equal strength. That means 2 things, we get a predictable and one-sided beginning to the group with a close and potentially surprising end to it. In the first game, Haiti beat the US Virgin Islands 6-0. In the other match, Antigua beat Curacao 5-2 after falling behind early. In the 2nd match, Antigua beat USVI by the score of 8-1, while Haiti beat Curacao 4-2 after falling behind twice.
What Have We Learned?
The effects of the earthquake have affected Haiti's national team performance though it hasn't shown yet in qualifying. The goal difference game has been won by Antigua so far and that may come into play later on in the group. A few years ago, Haiti would not be challenged by the likes of Antigua but since the earthquake Haiti are not what they once were. This one is too tough to call at the moment and it will come down to the final two games.
Showing posts with label World Cup Qualifying. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Cup Qualifying. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Thursday, September 15, 2011
World Cup Qualifying: What Have We Learned?
After a few weeks away, I'm back and there's a lot to talk about on the agenda! Since my last post, World Cup qualifying and Euro Cup qualifying have taken place. Almost every team played two games in a 5 day span and the qualifying groups have all begun to take shape. We'll start today with World Cup qualifying in Asia and discuss what the results mean.
Group A (China, Iraq, Jordan, Singapore)
With the top two teams moving on to the final round from each group, groups like Group A would be fiercely contested. China, Iraq and Jordan are all quality squads while Singapore are good enough to play spoiler. Infact, Singapore almost played spoiler in the opening game at China. Singapore took the lead early only to lose 2-1. On the same day, in what was maybe the most important match of the group, Jordan beat Iraq in an away game. The result was significant because it gave Jordan the upper hand over Iraq, a team that was considered similar in quality. It was also an away game for Jordan, the next time they play Iraq they will be at home and a draw may be enough to eliminate the Iraqis then. Four days later on September 6th the second games were played in the Group. Iraq and Singapore, both coming off of losses, met in Singapore and Iraq won 2-0 to earn their first 3 points while Singapore are yet to get a point. Game 1 winners, China and Jordan played for 1st place in Amman, Jordan and despite a goalless first half Jordan won the game 2-1 to move into first place alone with 6 points.
What Have We Learned?:
Jordan are a better team than expected and WILL qualify for the final round. They play Singapore in both of their next 2 games and should qualify for the final round with 2 wins. China plays Iraq in their next two games and they can also make their road to the final round easy with 6 or even 4 points. Iraq, who I expected to challenge for spot until they met Jordan in Jordan in game 5, may already be in too big of a hole. If Iraq can earn a win against China in the upcoming games however, they will help themselves greatly.
Group B (South Korea, UAE, Kuwait, Lebanon)
On paper, Group B looked clear cut. South Korea and Kuwait would progress while UAE would help decide who finished second with an upset here or there and Lebanon would finish bottom. The opening games went as expected, South Korea beat Lebanon at home 6-0 while Kuwait won 3-2 at UAE in a game that ended up closer than it should have. In the 2nd games we got more interesting results. Kuwait hosted South Korea and the match ended up in a 1-1 draw. The next match gave us our first real surprise with Lebanon beating UAE 3-1 at home. South Korea and Kuwait sit atop of the group with 4 points, while Lebanon is surprisingly on 3 points. The UAE are yet to earn any points.
What Have We Learned?:
Lebanon may not be as bad as originally thought and the UAE may not be as competitive as we had hoped. South Korea should put UAE out of their misery in the next 2 matches while an improved Lebanon may not be enough of a threat to prevent Kuwait from winning both of their next matches. The group looks all but settled with South Korea and Kuwait moving on to the last round predictably.
Group C (Japan, North Korea, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan)
This group was the group that had originally been looked at as the best and most competitive of the round. Japan are perhaps the best on the continent, while North Korea qualified for the last World Cup. Uzbekistan have come close to qualifying for World Cups recently and are becoming regulars in the final round as well. Syria was originally supposed to be the group's third seed and with them present the group have have 4 tough squads participating, but Syria were replaced by Tajikistan after it was discovered that they had used an ineligable player in the previous round versus Tajikistan. Syria's disqualification, meant that the group would finally have a clear bottom feeder. The first games in the group showed just how tough the group would be. Tajikistan, originally eliminated in the last round by Syria, did a good job and held Uzbekistan at 0-0 for most of the game before losing 1-0. In the matchup of World Cup 2010 participants, Japan and North Korea played a tough match in Saitama. Japan won the match 1-0 on a 94th minute goal, North Korea were very close to earning a point away against the groups best but had to settle for nothing. The 2nd game had North Korea hosting Tajikistan and they won 1-0 to earn their first 3 points, had they held on in Japan they would have 4 points from 2 games...not bad for a 4th seed. In the other match, Uzbekistan scored early on Japan but the match ended in a tie. Japan and Uzbekistan are deadlocked on 4 points and goal difference. North Korea are on 3 points and predictably Tajikistan are on 0, despite two respectable performances.
What Have We Learned?:
Even with Tajikistan joining the group, it is still a tight close group. Uzbekistan aren't flashy but get the job done and are in good position. Japan have not played like the group favorites yet but have 4 points to show for it, though it could have easily been 2 points with them in 3rd place. North Korea could be on 4 points but have to settle for 3. With two teams going through, Japan are safe and will be fine, Uzbekistan face North Korea in their next two and that will decide who joins the Japanese in the final round. Tajikistan are doing well to represent themselves and the group is just as tough as we expected.
Group D (Australia, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand)
Like Group C, this group was also considered to be pretty tough before it started. Australia and Saudi Arabia should be the clear favorites,while Oman and Thailand can both play spoiler with no clear minnow. Australia played Thailand first and in typical spoiler fashion Thailand scored first. Australia went into the half at home down 1-0. The second half went more like we expected and Australia survived the scare to win 2-1. Saudi Arabia travelled to Oman and unlike Australia they weren't able to come out of a close game with a win. They had to accept 0-0 against a team that should not be equal to them. Thailand went into the 2nd match as the only team in the group to not have earned a point but quickly changed that, winning 3-0 against Oman. Australia travelled to Saudi Arabia to play in what should have been the closest match of the entire group, instead it was not close and Australia won convincingly 3-1. After 2 games Australia have earned full points while Saudi Arabia is struggling to place in the top 2.
What Have We Learned?:
Saudi Arabia tied Oman 0-0 and Oman lost to Thailand 3-0. That says a lot about where Saudi Arabia have fallen. It is not certain whether Saudi Arabia will be able to qualify for the final round given their performances so far. That opens the door for Thailand. Oman play Australia twice in a row now and may fall out of contention. Australia may finish this group with full points. Saudi Arabia travels to Thailand next, keep an eye on that match. If Saudi Arabia can't win that match they will not qualify for the final round.
Group E (Iran, Qatar, Bahrain, Indonesia)
This group, more than maybe any other group, has turned into a 3 team race. Iran hosted Indonesia to begin their campaign, and predictably they won 3-0. Bahrain hosted Qatar and that match ended 0-0, keeping both teams in it. Bahrain versus Qatar I felt would be the defining matchup of the group as they fight for second place and this game showed just how close they are. Bahrain got their first win in their next game, defeating Indonesia 2-0. The win took them to 4 points from 2 games. Qatar, the 2022 World Cup hosts, played host to Iran in their 2nd match and it ended in a draw, 1-1. Iran now sits on 4 points, like Bahrain and Qatar have 2 draws leaving them on 2 points.
What Have We Learned?:
We've learned that Indonesia stands alone at the bottom of the group. Iran, Bahrain and Qatar compete for 2 spots in the final round and all look capable. Iran play Bahrain twice in a row now, and both are tied atop the group with 4 points. Qatar get Indonesia twice in a row now. Qatar can end up on 8 points after the 2 matches, while Bahrain or Iran can fall significantly behind by that time. Qatar finishes at Iran and before that they host Bahrain though, so it'll be tough across the board and exciting to see who qualifies to the final round and who gets eliminated from this group.
In the next few days I'll discuss what we learned in Concacaf as well as in Euro Cup qualifying and finally I'll make a post about the qualifying formats of each confederation and how to improve them.
Group A (China, Iraq, Jordan, Singapore)
With the top two teams moving on to the final round from each group, groups like Group A would be fiercely contested. China, Iraq and Jordan are all quality squads while Singapore are good enough to play spoiler. Infact, Singapore almost played spoiler in the opening game at China. Singapore took the lead early only to lose 2-1. On the same day, in what was maybe the most important match of the group, Jordan beat Iraq in an away game. The result was significant because it gave Jordan the upper hand over Iraq, a team that was considered similar in quality. It was also an away game for Jordan, the next time they play Iraq they will be at home and a draw may be enough to eliminate the Iraqis then. Four days later on September 6th the second games were played in the Group. Iraq and Singapore, both coming off of losses, met in Singapore and Iraq won 2-0 to earn their first 3 points while Singapore are yet to get a point. Game 1 winners, China and Jordan played for 1st place in Amman, Jordan and despite a goalless first half Jordan won the game 2-1 to move into first place alone with 6 points.
What Have We Learned?:
Jordan are a better team than expected and WILL qualify for the final round. They play Singapore in both of their next 2 games and should qualify for the final round with 2 wins. China plays Iraq in their next two games and they can also make their road to the final round easy with 6 or even 4 points. Iraq, who I expected to challenge for spot until they met Jordan in Jordan in game 5, may already be in too big of a hole. If Iraq can earn a win against China in the upcoming games however, they will help themselves greatly.
Group B (South Korea, UAE, Kuwait, Lebanon)
On paper, Group B looked clear cut. South Korea and Kuwait would progress while UAE would help decide who finished second with an upset here or there and Lebanon would finish bottom. The opening games went as expected, South Korea beat Lebanon at home 6-0 while Kuwait won 3-2 at UAE in a game that ended up closer than it should have. In the 2nd games we got more interesting results. Kuwait hosted South Korea and the match ended up in a 1-1 draw. The next match gave us our first real surprise with Lebanon beating UAE 3-1 at home. South Korea and Kuwait sit atop of the group with 4 points, while Lebanon is surprisingly on 3 points. The UAE are yet to earn any points.
What Have We Learned?:
Lebanon may not be as bad as originally thought and the UAE may not be as competitive as we had hoped. South Korea should put UAE out of their misery in the next 2 matches while an improved Lebanon may not be enough of a threat to prevent Kuwait from winning both of their next matches. The group looks all but settled with South Korea and Kuwait moving on to the last round predictably.
Group C (Japan, North Korea, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan)
This group was the group that had originally been looked at as the best and most competitive of the round. Japan are perhaps the best on the continent, while North Korea qualified for the last World Cup. Uzbekistan have come close to qualifying for World Cups recently and are becoming regulars in the final round as well. Syria was originally supposed to be the group's third seed and with them present the group have have 4 tough squads participating, but Syria were replaced by Tajikistan after it was discovered that they had used an ineligable player in the previous round versus Tajikistan. Syria's disqualification, meant that the group would finally have a clear bottom feeder. The first games in the group showed just how tough the group would be. Tajikistan, originally eliminated in the last round by Syria, did a good job and held Uzbekistan at 0-0 for most of the game before losing 1-0. In the matchup of World Cup 2010 participants, Japan and North Korea played a tough match in Saitama. Japan won the match 1-0 on a 94th minute goal, North Korea were very close to earning a point away against the groups best but had to settle for nothing. The 2nd game had North Korea hosting Tajikistan and they won 1-0 to earn their first 3 points, had they held on in Japan they would have 4 points from 2 games...not bad for a 4th seed. In the other match, Uzbekistan scored early on Japan but the match ended in a tie. Japan and Uzbekistan are deadlocked on 4 points and goal difference. North Korea are on 3 points and predictably Tajikistan are on 0, despite two respectable performances.
What Have We Learned?:
Even with Tajikistan joining the group, it is still a tight close group. Uzbekistan aren't flashy but get the job done and are in good position. Japan have not played like the group favorites yet but have 4 points to show for it, though it could have easily been 2 points with them in 3rd place. North Korea could be on 4 points but have to settle for 3. With two teams going through, Japan are safe and will be fine, Uzbekistan face North Korea in their next two and that will decide who joins the Japanese in the final round. Tajikistan are doing well to represent themselves and the group is just as tough as we expected.
Group D (Australia, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand)
Like Group C, this group was also considered to be pretty tough before it started. Australia and Saudi Arabia should be the clear favorites,while Oman and Thailand can both play spoiler with no clear minnow. Australia played Thailand first and in typical spoiler fashion Thailand scored first. Australia went into the half at home down 1-0. The second half went more like we expected and Australia survived the scare to win 2-1. Saudi Arabia travelled to Oman and unlike Australia they weren't able to come out of a close game with a win. They had to accept 0-0 against a team that should not be equal to them. Thailand went into the 2nd match as the only team in the group to not have earned a point but quickly changed that, winning 3-0 against Oman. Australia travelled to Saudi Arabia to play in what should have been the closest match of the entire group, instead it was not close and Australia won convincingly 3-1. After 2 games Australia have earned full points while Saudi Arabia is struggling to place in the top 2.
What Have We Learned?:
Saudi Arabia tied Oman 0-0 and Oman lost to Thailand 3-0. That says a lot about where Saudi Arabia have fallen. It is not certain whether Saudi Arabia will be able to qualify for the final round given their performances so far. That opens the door for Thailand. Oman play Australia twice in a row now and may fall out of contention. Australia may finish this group with full points. Saudi Arabia travels to Thailand next, keep an eye on that match. If Saudi Arabia can't win that match they will not qualify for the final round.
Group E (Iran, Qatar, Bahrain, Indonesia)
This group, more than maybe any other group, has turned into a 3 team race. Iran hosted Indonesia to begin their campaign, and predictably they won 3-0. Bahrain hosted Qatar and that match ended 0-0, keeping both teams in it. Bahrain versus Qatar I felt would be the defining matchup of the group as they fight for second place and this game showed just how close they are. Bahrain got their first win in their next game, defeating Indonesia 2-0. The win took them to 4 points from 2 games. Qatar, the 2022 World Cup hosts, played host to Iran in their 2nd match and it ended in a draw, 1-1. Iran now sits on 4 points, like Bahrain and Qatar have 2 draws leaving them on 2 points.
What Have We Learned?:
We've learned that Indonesia stands alone at the bottom of the group. Iran, Bahrain and Qatar compete for 2 spots in the final round and all look capable. Iran play Bahrain twice in a row now, and both are tied atop the group with 4 points. Qatar get Indonesia twice in a row now. Qatar can end up on 8 points after the 2 matches, while Bahrain or Iran can fall significantly behind by that time. Qatar finishes at Iran and before that they host Bahrain though, so it'll be tough across the board and exciting to see who qualifies to the final round and who gets eliminated from this group.
In the next few days I'll discuss what we learned in Concacaf as well as in Euro Cup qualifying and finally I'll make a post about the qualifying formats of each confederation and how to improve them.
Friday, August 5, 2011
World Cup Draw Review: Europe
I've saved the best for last. Finally, the draw from Europe as decided this past weekend in Brazil. The European confederation is the biggest in terms of quantity and everyone who tunes into the draw does so to see their own confederation and then Europe. So what kind of mouth watering matchups do we have in Europe this cycle? Well before we get to that I'll just quickly go through the European format. The 53 member nations were drawn into 9 groups. The winner of each group qualifies for the World Cup while the 8 best runners up will playoff for the 4 remaining spots. The worst of the 9 runners up will not be drawn into the playoffs and will be eliminated. The ranking of second placed teams will be based on the individual teams records versus the teams placed 1st to 5th in their group, this is because group I only has 5 teams while all others have 6. In all Europe will be awarded 13 spots at the next World Cup. Norway and Greece were shock 1st seeds and were the teams everyone wanted to be drawn with. France, Russia, Serbia, Sweden and Denmark were the toughest of the 2nd seeds and teams that most others wanted to avoid. This is how things fell into place in Europe.
Group A
Croatia, Serbia, Belgium and Scotland could all challenge in this group, while Macedonia and Wales should be the bottom feeders. At first glance this may not appear to be a very tough group but Macedonia and Wales are far from the easiest minnows that could have been drawn to this group. Belgium and Scotland are both fully capable of challenging for atleast the runner up spot in this group, if they fail then they will surely play spoiler. Croatia and Serbia will fight for the automatic World Cup berth but there's a rivalry between them that is sure to make their matchups as well as their fight for 1st competitive and thrilling. I will not rule out the possibility that the group winner will be the team that manages not to drop points against Scotland and Belgium. Focusing on the bigger picture will be more important in this group than most others. Belgium, whether they qualify or not, will be the key in this group.
Group B
Unlike Group A, Group B actually looks hard on paper and at first site is the hardest that the draw has produced. Italy, Denmark, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Armenia and Malta form this group. Italy, though they had a tough World Cup 2010, are 1st seeds for a reason and usually don't do poorly in qualifying. Whether they finish 1st or qualify through the playoffs as a runner up is another question. If they manage to falter and go the runner up route, Denmark and Czech Republic are more than capable of taking the top spot. Denmark also had a bad World Cup 2010 but are efficient enough to cruise through this group. The Czech Republic are a bit of a mystery, they usually do very well or fall apart before the end. If they play to the top of their game for the entire campaign they will be tough to stop. Bulgaria may be the key a lot like Belgium is in Group A. Not an immediate threat to qualify, Bulgaria can defeat any of the top 3 and at a crucial moment in qualifying that can change everything. Armenia and Malta should not put up much of a fight here. In this group keep an eye on the top 4 positions at all times as things should get interesting.
Group C
Group C can also be argued to be the toughest of the bunch. Germany, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Faroe Islands and Kazakhstan were drawn together for this group. There's not much I need to say about Germany, they are top class as always and regardless of opponents they should qualify. Having Germany in your group pretty much takes automatic qualification away but that doesn't mean that Sweden, Ireland or Austria will just roll over and die. Infact, Austria has played Germany tough recently in Euro Cup qualifying and the Germans were lucky to come away with a point. Austria always seems to play Germany tough for obvious reasons but I highly doubt that they are of the quality to challenge for a runner up position. Sweden and Ireland however, will challenge for that spot. Sweden are the most likely to get that position and they will undoubtedly give Germany a good run for the group's top spot. Ireland can take points away from anyone but usually struggle to dominate the minnows in these situations. Sweden and Ireland's faith may rely directly on how they do against each other. If Germany drop points and either Sweden or Ireland get on a roll we can have an interesting race. If not, the fight for second will make for some thrilling football.
Group D
Unlike the first 3 groups, this one does not look like it will be much of a fight. World Cup 2010 runner up, The Netherlands will be joined by Turkey, Hungary, Romania, Estonia and Andorra. The Netherlands are clear favorites to win the group and could do so with full points as they did last time. Turkey technically are the most likely to challenge them and historically have done well against the Netherlands. Turkey have not exactly followed up their World Cup 2002 performance with success but can challenge when at their best. Hungary are a mystery at the moment. They have not qualified for a World Cup since the 80's and have not finished as a runner up since 1998 but they have a young talented team and have been improving. Romania have not made a World Cup since 1998 but are in the perfect group to try make it back to the big tournament. If Turkey slip and they play Holland at the right time, Romania can earn the runners up spot and try qualify through the playoffs. Estonia and Andorra won't challenge much as minnows but can play spoiler potentially.
Group E
Above I mentioned that Norway and Greece were seeded and Group E was the first to be seeded by one of these teams, Norway. Slovenia, Switzerland, Albania, Cyprus and Iceland joins the Norwegians in the group. Norway, despite not qualifying for a World Cup since 1998 will benefit from being seeded in this somewhat simple group. Slovenia and Switzerland both qualified for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa and will try to do the same this time around. Norway, Slovenia and Switzerland all have a chance to win the group and there's not much seperation between them. This will be one of those groups where the team that ends up 3rd will regret not seizing the opportunity. Albania, Cyprus and Iceland pose no direct threat to the top 3 but will play a direct roll in who qualifies by taking away points. Albania should be top spoiler.
Group F
Portugal and Russia are the toughest teams in Group F. Israel, Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan and Luxembourg round out the group. Israel and Northern Ireland pose a direct threat to the top 2 teams in terms of stealing points. The best chance for either of those 2 nations however will be to try get into the playoffs and hope for a favorable matchup. Azerbaijan and Luxembourg will play the role of minnows well. Portugal and Russia will challenge each other directly and 1 match can end up deciding who goes directly to Brazil and who goes to the playoffs. Russia has not played in a World Cup since 2002, but I think this group gives them their best opportunity since.
Group G
Group G is by far the easiest group overall in Europe and this is a direct result of Greece's seeding. Greece, Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithuania, Latvia and Liechtenstein form the group. Bosnia and Herzegovina interest me the most in this group. Bosnia have been knocking on the door for quite some time and this may be their final chance to qualify for the World Cup while they still have this generation of players. The group definitely allows for the possibility of Bosnia doing well, but Slovakia and Greece will have to falter a bit to allow that. Both Slovakia and Greece participated in the last World Cup and are going to be favoured. Slovakia and Greece will have to focus on each other's movements up and down the table while keeping an eye on Bosnia. Lithuania and Latvia are not poor in quality and should have some say in the way the group plays out. Lithuania could actually challenge for a runners up spot if they play to the best of their abilities, but that's a long shot right now. Liechtenstein can also produce a shock result that can prove costly to one of the contenders.
Group H
After 4 not so spectacular groups we have a pretty interesting one in Group H. England are the top seeds in the group, followed by upstart Montenegro. A pair of 2006 qualifiers, Ukraine and Poland, can also compete for a qualifying spot all the way to the final matchday and Moldova and San Marino round out the group. We all know of England and their capabilities so it's no surprise that they are expected to qualify from this group. Whether or not they do it with ease, or at all, is another story. The English are not a poor side at all, the group is just extremely tricky and these kinds of groups can cause a lot of problems for many of the top teams. Montenegro are a mystery to me, they were part of Serbia and Montenegro when they qualified for the 2006 World Cup but a small part at that. They have had good results in the years since their formation as a team though and earned their high seeding. Former Yugoslav republics tend to do well in World Cup qualifying however, so Montenegro should be paid attention to. While Moldova are not a threat to qualify and San Marino will shock the world if they earn a single point, Poland and Ukraine are legitimate threats. Both nations co-host Euro Cup 2012 and therefore have not been playing those current qualifiers, but once playing that tournament at home they should be ready to compete and could give England a run for their money. It will be interesting to see who plays who on the final matchday.
Group I
Finally we get to Group I, the 5 team group and what a group it is. Defending FIFA World Cup champion, Spain and 2006 World Cup runner up, France will battle it out for the top spot. The three remaining teams in the group are Belarus, Georgia and Finland...far from the easiest group. It's inevitable that one of the top 2 will have to go through the playoffs if they are to make it to the World Cup. Belarus can make things very interesting if they were to challenge for that runner up spot essentially eliminating Spain or France, could you imagine a World Cup without its defending champion? Georgia and Finland will not be pushovers either by any means and this group will most likely go down to the final matchday, if only to seperate 1st from 2nd.
Group A
Croatia, Serbia, Belgium and Scotland could all challenge in this group, while Macedonia and Wales should be the bottom feeders. At first glance this may not appear to be a very tough group but Macedonia and Wales are far from the easiest minnows that could have been drawn to this group. Belgium and Scotland are both fully capable of challenging for atleast the runner up spot in this group, if they fail then they will surely play spoiler. Croatia and Serbia will fight for the automatic World Cup berth but there's a rivalry between them that is sure to make their matchups as well as their fight for 1st competitive and thrilling. I will not rule out the possibility that the group winner will be the team that manages not to drop points against Scotland and Belgium. Focusing on the bigger picture will be more important in this group than most others. Belgium, whether they qualify or not, will be the key in this group.
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| Belgium |
Unlike Group A, Group B actually looks hard on paper and at first site is the hardest that the draw has produced. Italy, Denmark, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Armenia and Malta form this group. Italy, though they had a tough World Cup 2010, are 1st seeds for a reason and usually don't do poorly in qualifying. Whether they finish 1st or qualify through the playoffs as a runner up is another question. If they manage to falter and go the runner up route, Denmark and Czech Republic are more than capable of taking the top spot. Denmark also had a bad World Cup 2010 but are efficient enough to cruise through this group. The Czech Republic are a bit of a mystery, they usually do very well or fall apart before the end. If they play to the top of their game for the entire campaign they will be tough to stop. Bulgaria may be the key a lot like Belgium is in Group A. Not an immediate threat to qualify, Bulgaria can defeat any of the top 3 and at a crucial moment in qualifying that can change everything. Armenia and Malta should not put up much of a fight here. In this group keep an eye on the top 4 positions at all times as things should get interesting.
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| Denmark |
Group C can also be argued to be the toughest of the bunch. Germany, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Faroe Islands and Kazakhstan were drawn together for this group. There's not much I need to say about Germany, they are top class as always and regardless of opponents they should qualify. Having Germany in your group pretty much takes automatic qualification away but that doesn't mean that Sweden, Ireland or Austria will just roll over and die. Infact, Austria has played Germany tough recently in Euro Cup qualifying and the Germans were lucky to come away with a point. Austria always seems to play Germany tough for obvious reasons but I highly doubt that they are of the quality to challenge for a runner up position. Sweden and Ireland however, will challenge for that spot. Sweden are the most likely to get that position and they will undoubtedly give Germany a good run for the group's top spot. Ireland can take points away from anyone but usually struggle to dominate the minnows in these situations. Sweden and Ireland's faith may rely directly on how they do against each other. If Germany drop points and either Sweden or Ireland get on a roll we can have an interesting race. If not, the fight for second will make for some thrilling football.
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| Sweden |
Unlike the first 3 groups, this one does not look like it will be much of a fight. World Cup 2010 runner up, The Netherlands will be joined by Turkey, Hungary, Romania, Estonia and Andorra. The Netherlands are clear favorites to win the group and could do so with full points as they did last time. Turkey technically are the most likely to challenge them and historically have done well against the Netherlands. Turkey have not exactly followed up their World Cup 2002 performance with success but can challenge when at their best. Hungary are a mystery at the moment. They have not qualified for a World Cup since the 80's and have not finished as a runner up since 1998 but they have a young talented team and have been improving. Romania have not made a World Cup since 1998 but are in the perfect group to try make it back to the big tournament. If Turkey slip and they play Holland at the right time, Romania can earn the runners up spot and try qualify through the playoffs. Estonia and Andorra won't challenge much as minnows but can play spoiler potentially.
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| Holland |
Above I mentioned that Norway and Greece were seeded and Group E was the first to be seeded by one of these teams, Norway. Slovenia, Switzerland, Albania, Cyprus and Iceland joins the Norwegians in the group. Norway, despite not qualifying for a World Cup since 1998 will benefit from being seeded in this somewhat simple group. Slovenia and Switzerland both qualified for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa and will try to do the same this time around. Norway, Slovenia and Switzerland all have a chance to win the group and there's not much seperation between them. This will be one of those groups where the team that ends up 3rd will regret not seizing the opportunity. Albania, Cyprus and Iceland pose no direct threat to the top 3 but will play a direct roll in who qualifies by taking away points. Albania should be top spoiler.
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| Switzerland |
Portugal and Russia are the toughest teams in Group F. Israel, Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan and Luxembourg round out the group. Israel and Northern Ireland pose a direct threat to the top 2 teams in terms of stealing points. The best chance for either of those 2 nations however will be to try get into the playoffs and hope for a favorable matchup. Azerbaijan and Luxembourg will play the role of minnows well. Portugal and Russia will challenge each other directly and 1 match can end up deciding who goes directly to Brazil and who goes to the playoffs. Russia has not played in a World Cup since 2002, but I think this group gives them their best opportunity since.
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| Russia |
Group G is by far the easiest group overall in Europe and this is a direct result of Greece's seeding. Greece, Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithuania, Latvia and Liechtenstein form the group. Bosnia and Herzegovina interest me the most in this group. Bosnia have been knocking on the door for quite some time and this may be their final chance to qualify for the World Cup while they still have this generation of players. The group definitely allows for the possibility of Bosnia doing well, but Slovakia and Greece will have to falter a bit to allow that. Both Slovakia and Greece participated in the last World Cup and are going to be favoured. Slovakia and Greece will have to focus on each other's movements up and down the table while keeping an eye on Bosnia. Lithuania and Latvia are not poor in quality and should have some say in the way the group plays out. Lithuania could actually challenge for a runners up spot if they play to the best of their abilities, but that's a long shot right now. Liechtenstein can also produce a shock result that can prove costly to one of the contenders.
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| Bosnia and Herzegovina |
After 4 not so spectacular groups we have a pretty interesting one in Group H. England are the top seeds in the group, followed by upstart Montenegro. A pair of 2006 qualifiers, Ukraine and Poland, can also compete for a qualifying spot all the way to the final matchday and Moldova and San Marino round out the group. We all know of England and their capabilities so it's no surprise that they are expected to qualify from this group. Whether or not they do it with ease, or at all, is another story. The English are not a poor side at all, the group is just extremely tricky and these kinds of groups can cause a lot of problems for many of the top teams. Montenegro are a mystery to me, they were part of Serbia and Montenegro when they qualified for the 2006 World Cup but a small part at that. They have had good results in the years since their formation as a team though and earned their high seeding. Former Yugoslav republics tend to do well in World Cup qualifying however, so Montenegro should be paid attention to. While Moldova are not a threat to qualify and San Marino will shock the world if they earn a single point, Poland and Ukraine are legitimate threats. Both nations co-host Euro Cup 2012 and therefore have not been playing those current qualifiers, but once playing that tournament at home they should be ready to compete and could give England a run for their money. It will be interesting to see who plays who on the final matchday.
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| Ukraine |
Group I
Finally we get to Group I, the 5 team group and what a group it is. Defending FIFA World Cup champion, Spain and 2006 World Cup runner up, France will battle it out for the top spot. The three remaining teams in the group are Belarus, Georgia and Finland...far from the easiest group. It's inevitable that one of the top 2 will have to go through the playoffs if they are to make it to the World Cup. Belarus can make things very interesting if they were to challenge for that runner up spot essentially eliminating Spain or France, could you imagine a World Cup without its defending champion? Georgia and Finland will not be pushovers either by any means and this group will most likely go down to the final matchday, if only to seperate 1st from 2nd.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
World Cup Draw Review: Concacaf
Concacaf has finally gotten a system that seems fair and likely to qualify the best teams to the World Cup. There was still a problem this time around however, typical for the region. The problem is that unlike the rest of the world Concacaf chose to use the rankings from March for their seeding, four months prior to the draw. The direct result of this unwise choice was Cuba being seeded while Panama, El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago and Canada had to go through the first group round.
The first group round makes sence for Concacaf. Six groups of four teams in which only the group winner progresses. This gives a lot of the smaller nations a chance to play more than just 2 games and against more than just one opponent. While the eventual result of most of these groups are obvious, in the long run I think the region will benefit from more matches for the smaller nations. The draw in Brazil this past weekend formed the groups for this first group round as well as the Semi Round that will follow.
Group A is made up of El Salvador, Suriname, Cayman Islands and the Dominican Republic. El Salvador made an amazing run all the way to the final round (the Hexagonal) of qualifying last cycle and though it was unexpected they did well to represent themselves. Suriname made it to the Semi Round last time in what was also an unexpected performance. At that stage they put up little fight though. The Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic have not had much previous qualifying success and group play in the World Cup is a new experience for both. El Salvador are a force at home versus the region's best and should not have much problem versus opponents of this quality. I fully expect them to win the group and qualify for the Semi Round with ease.
2006 qualifiers, Trinidad and Tobago were drawn into Group B where they will meet Guyana, Barbados and Bermuda. Given the talent in this round, this group is one of the strongest. Trinidad and Tobago qualified for the World Cup in 2006 but since then have been on a downward spiral and have not even played a match this year. They have played Guyana a few times over the last few years however and that may go a long way for them. Guyana has never made it to the Semi Round and even with Trinidad and Tobago's struggles they will most likely not make it past this group. Barbados made it to the Semi Round in the World Cup 2002 qualifying cycle and even managed a victory over Costa Rica to open their campaign. After that historic win however they were not able to record another victory. Since then Barbados has fallen a bit and will most likely not be much of a threat on the group. Bermuda has not done well in World Cup qualifying since the 1994 cycle but the last time around they managed to beat Trinidad and Tobago in Trinidad. If they can repeat that feat it will go a long way in this group. Expect a close group but without many major upsets.
Group C should be called the group of minnows. Panama, who are one of the region's best currently, will face Dominica, Nicaragua and the Bahamas. None of those three have ever made it to the Semi Round and rarely qualify for regional tournaments. The Bahamas are a super minnow and will most likely not earn a point. Nicaragua qualified for a Gold Cup not too long ago but are usually not a threat in World Cup qualifying. Dominica, regardless of being second seeds, are just as bad as Nicaragua if not worst. Panama made it all the way to the Hexagonal in the 2006 cycle but followed it up by failing to qualify for the Semi Round last time around. Panama should win the group with full points and move on.
Canada, St. Kitts and Nevis, Puerto Rico and St.Lucia make up Group D. Puerto Rico and St.Lucia are true minnows while St.Kitts are good enough to beat both but not beat Canada once. Canada, traditional underachievers, are used to the Semi Round and should be back there again. They have not qualified for the Hexagonal the last 3 times though, not since the 1998 cycle. St.Kitts played in the Semi Round in the 2006 cycle but were embarrased by Mexico there. If there's any doubt as to who will win the group going into the final match, St.Kitts having to play in Canada in November will settle it.
If there's a tough group in this round then Group E wins the title hands down. Grenada, Guatemala, St.Vincent and the Grenadines and Belize make up a thrilling group. Grenada have done well enough over the past 5 years to warrant being seeded in this round but will have their work cut out for them. Their toughest opponents are Guatemala, who are regulars at the Semi Round and true favorites to win the group by most. St.Vincent and the Grenadines had a great level of success for a nation of their size from the 1994 cycle to the 2006 cycle and no one can take their reputation away from them. They made the Semi Round in every one of those 4 cycles before failing in the 2010 cycle. Belize will bring up the rear but are far from the easiest minnow that could've been drawn into the group. While Guatemala are favorites they will play their final 2 matches against Grenada with the last being in Grenada. Playing in the Caribbean is never an easy task for Central American nations and could prove decisive for Guatemala. St.Vincent and the Grenadines however may benefit from being placed as a third seed. They play their final 2 matches against Belize and if they manage to keep things close going into those final 2 games it may put them in great position to win the group. They're also familiar enough with Grenada to not be threatened by their ranking.
The final preliminery group includes Haiti, Antigua, Curacao and the US Virgin Islands. Overall this is the weakest group and there may not be much outside interest here. The US Virgin Islands will end play with 0 points and I can garauntee that before a ball is kicked. Curacao played formerly as the Netherland Antilles, well atleast all their players did before the Antilles broke apart. Antigua, while improving over the years, can threaten Haiti for the group but if they get past then they will suffer a harsh reality upon reaching the next round. Haiti would usually be the outright favorites in the group but after the tragedy that struck their nation last year...who knows what kind of effort they will put forth.
The Semi Round is where the quality of football gets higher and we seperate the men from the boys. Group A includes the USA and Jamaica from the seeded teams and most likely Haiti and Guatemala from the groups I listed above. The USA will of course finish top 2 and qualify from this group to the Hexagonal. Guatemala (if they mak it to this stage) will put up a nice challenge, but truthfully Jamaica are as good, if not better, than their 1998 team that qualified for the World Cup in France. Haiti, if they make it past the previous round, will finish last in the group.
Group B in the Semi Round should be the toughest. It involves Mexico and Costa Rica from the seeded pots and most likely Trinidad and Tobago and El Salvador as winners of their preliminery groups. Mexico are traditionally the region's best and Costa Rica can be as strong as the top seeds on any given day. Trinidad and Tobago realistically should not pose much of a threat to either of the top 2, while El Salvador should be dominant at home but not good enough overall. If all teams play at their best though, expect fireworks and surprises.
Group C will be the weakest of the bunch overall. Honduras and Cuba were the seeded teams assigned to this group and they are expected to be joined by Canada and Panama. Honduras are not far removed from their World Cup appearance in 2010 but a Gold Cup loss to Jamaica would suggest that they are closer to the second seeds than they are to USA and Mexico in quality. Cuba, while seeded, will in all likelihood finish last in the group. They don't travel well, as you would expect wth a country in their situation, and they just don't have the players to compete against the better teams in the region. Canada has a nice opportunity to make it to the Hexagonal for the first time since the 1998 cycle, but they usually underachieve and Panama can cause them trouble. Panama are my pick to finish 2nd in this group as they have been improving steadily since 2004 and the draw was favorable to them.
I will revisit these groups once we get a clearer picture of what these groups will looks like. The preliminery round will begin on September 2nd and the road to Brazil will begin to take shape in North America. By the end of the year we will know for sure what the Semi Round groups will look like and what to expect heading deeper into this cycle.
The first group round makes sence for Concacaf. Six groups of four teams in which only the group winner progresses. This gives a lot of the smaller nations a chance to play more than just 2 games and against more than just one opponent. While the eventual result of most of these groups are obvious, in the long run I think the region will benefit from more matches for the smaller nations. The draw in Brazil this past weekend formed the groups for this first group round as well as the Semi Round that will follow.
Group A is made up of El Salvador, Suriname, Cayman Islands and the Dominican Republic. El Salvador made an amazing run all the way to the final round (the Hexagonal) of qualifying last cycle and though it was unexpected they did well to represent themselves. Suriname made it to the Semi Round last time in what was also an unexpected performance. At that stage they put up little fight though. The Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic have not had much previous qualifying success and group play in the World Cup is a new experience for both. El Salvador are a force at home versus the region's best and should not have much problem versus opponents of this quality. I fully expect them to win the group and qualify for the Semi Round with ease.
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| El Salvador |
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| Trinidad and Tobago |
Canada, St. Kitts and Nevis, Puerto Rico and St.Lucia make up Group D. Puerto Rico and St.Lucia are true minnows while St.Kitts are good enough to beat both but not beat Canada once. Canada, traditional underachievers, are used to the Semi Round and should be back there again. They have not qualified for the Hexagonal the last 3 times though, not since the 1998 cycle. St.Kitts played in the Semi Round in the 2006 cycle but were embarrased by Mexico there. If there's any doubt as to who will win the group going into the final match, St.Kitts having to play in Canada in November will settle it.
If there's a tough group in this round then Group E wins the title hands down. Grenada, Guatemala, St.Vincent and the Grenadines and Belize make up a thrilling group. Grenada have done well enough over the past 5 years to warrant being seeded in this round but will have their work cut out for them. Their toughest opponents are Guatemala, who are regulars at the Semi Round and true favorites to win the group by most. St.Vincent and the Grenadines had a great level of success for a nation of their size from the 1994 cycle to the 2006 cycle and no one can take their reputation away from them. They made the Semi Round in every one of those 4 cycles before failing in the 2010 cycle. Belize will bring up the rear but are far from the easiest minnow that could've been drawn into the group. While Guatemala are favorites they will play their final 2 matches against Grenada with the last being in Grenada. Playing in the Caribbean is never an easy task for Central American nations and could prove decisive for Guatemala. St.Vincent and the Grenadines however may benefit from being placed as a third seed. They play their final 2 matches against Belize and if they manage to keep things close going into those final 2 games it may put them in great position to win the group. They're also familiar enough with Grenada to not be threatened by their ranking.
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| Grenada |
The Semi Round is where the quality of football gets higher and we seperate the men from the boys. Group A includes the USA and Jamaica from the seeded teams and most likely Haiti and Guatemala from the groups I listed above. The USA will of course finish top 2 and qualify from this group to the Hexagonal. Guatemala (if they mak it to this stage) will put up a nice challenge, but truthfully Jamaica are as good, if not better, than their 1998 team that qualified for the World Cup in France. Haiti, if they make it past the previous round, will finish last in the group.
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| Jamaica |
Group C will be the weakest of the bunch overall. Honduras and Cuba were the seeded teams assigned to this group and they are expected to be joined by Canada and Panama. Honduras are not far removed from their World Cup appearance in 2010 but a Gold Cup loss to Jamaica would suggest that they are closer to the second seeds than they are to USA and Mexico in quality. Cuba, while seeded, will in all likelihood finish last in the group. They don't travel well, as you would expect wth a country in their situation, and they just don't have the players to compete against the better teams in the region. Canada has a nice opportunity to make it to the Hexagonal for the first time since the 1998 cycle, but they usually underachieve and Panama can cause them trouble. Panama are my pick to finish 2nd in this group as they have been improving steadily since 2004 and the draw was favorable to them.
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| Cuba |
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
World Cup Draw Review: Asia and Oceania with a touch of South America
Asia and Oceania are still not merged into one confederation and I have no idea why! Before we get to those confederations though, let's take a quick look at South America. I have spent a big part of the summer watching and writing about South American football, so I have a fairly good idea of where each team is in terms of quality. Brazil qualifies automatically as hosts and therefore will not take part in the qualifiers this time around. The other 9 South American teams however will face off in one big 9 team group as usual. There are 4.5 spots in the World Cup on the line. That means 4 teams qualify automatically with the 5th placing team playing off with an Asian team for a spot in the World Cup. We can potentially have 6 South American teams in the World Cup with Brazil added to those possibly 5 spots. 6 teams out of the overall 10 nations seems like a bit much to me, but oh well lets see how that works. With 9 teams facing each other in 1 big group we will always have 1 team off on a matchday. Personally I expect to see Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Colombia to qualify. Chile should get the 5th spot with Ecuador challenging them all the way.
In Asia we have already had 2 rounds of football to narrow the field of teams down to 20. These 20 teams were drawn into 5 groups over the weekend. The top 2 teams in each group will move on to the next round. This system protects the regions top teams to some extent while allowing for minor upsets in which teams move on.
Group A drew China, Jordan, Iraq and Singapore together. China, Jordan and Iraq should all be in the fight for the top 2 spots. Singapore I don't see moving on but they may not exactly be walkovers either. Iraq and Jordan will open against each other in Iraq and it will be a good opportunity for either side to start off their campaign on a strong note. Jordan needs the fast start more as they finish their campaign against Iraq at home and then on the road against China.
Group B brings South Korea, Kuwait, U.A.E and Lebanon together in another interesting group. South Korea should be favored and even with a slip up should be able to finish top 2 in the group. Kuwait and the U.A.E will battle for the other spot while Lebanon will add some excitement as they pick up points. The key matchup here is U.A.E hosting South Korea in their 4th match. If U.A.E are able to get points in this matchup it will go a long way in determining if they get one of the top 2 spots.
As interesting as the first two groups may be, Group C is the group of death in Asia. Japan, North Korea, Uzbekistan and Syria are sure to excite in a group that could see any of the 4 nations moving on to the next round. Japan of course are favorites but all of their 3 opponents are capable of qualifying to the final round along with them. North Korea hosts Japan in the 5th matchday in a very important match for them, while Uzbekistan will try to defeat Syria at home the same day to avoid needing too much versus Japan in the final match.
Group D, involves Australia, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Thailand. Saudi Arabia usually qualifies for the final round and up until the last World Cup they were good enough to qualify for the big tournament. They are very shaky nowadays though and missing the final round is not out of the question. Australia should be the favorite in the group and I have no doubt they will win it. Oman and Thailand are a bit mysterious but Saudi Arabia should be weary of both. If Oman can beat Saudi Arabia at home in their opening game they will get an early strong hold on the 2nd spot. They face Thailand second and play two of their final three games at home.
Iran, Qatar, Bahrain and Indonesia make up Group E. Indonesia poses no real threat here but the group will not be short on excitement. Iran are the top seeds in the group and have qualified for World Cups recently, while Qatar was just awarded the hosting rights for the 2022 World Cup and are expected to atleast make the final round. Then there's Bahrain. Bahrain made it all the way to the intercontinental playoffs the last two times they attempted to qualify. They faced Trinidad and Tobago in the 2006 playoff for the final World Cup spot and in 2010 they battled with New Zealand. Both times they lost barely. This cycle they go into this semi round as a third seeded team but something tells me they'll have a lot to say about who progresses and who doesn't from this group. They travel to Qatar in the 5th matchday then finish at home against Indonesia, so that game against Qatar will essentially decide whether they move on or not.
In Oceania, there's no real secret that New Zealand will win the confederation and represent them in the intercontinental playoff. Fiji, Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea will try prevent this but I doubt they will succeed. New Zealand's main treat on their way to possible World Cup qualification is going to be the 4th placed Concacaf team. New Zealand can expect to meet Costa Rica or Honduras or possibly Jamaica in that intercontinental playoff and personally I don't think they can defeat any of the three....we are a long way away from that however, and a lot can change. We'll see how it works out.
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| Colombia National Team |
Group A drew China, Jordan, Iraq and Singapore together. China, Jordan and Iraq should all be in the fight for the top 2 spots. Singapore I don't see moving on but they may not exactly be walkovers either. Iraq and Jordan will open against each other in Iraq and it will be a good opportunity for either side to start off their campaign on a strong note. Jordan needs the fast start more as they finish their campaign against Iraq at home and then on the road against China.
Group B brings South Korea, Kuwait, U.A.E and Lebanon together in another interesting group. South Korea should be favored and even with a slip up should be able to finish top 2 in the group. Kuwait and the U.A.E will battle for the other spot while Lebanon will add some excitement as they pick up points. The key matchup here is U.A.E hosting South Korea in their 4th match. If U.A.E are able to get points in this matchup it will go a long way in determining if they get one of the top 2 spots.
As interesting as the first two groups may be, Group C is the group of death in Asia. Japan, North Korea, Uzbekistan and Syria are sure to excite in a group that could see any of the 4 nations moving on to the next round. Japan of course are favorites but all of their 3 opponents are capable of qualifying to the final round along with them. North Korea hosts Japan in the 5th matchday in a very important match for them, while Uzbekistan will try to defeat Syria at home the same day to avoid needing too much versus Japan in the final match.
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| Japan Team |
Iran, Qatar, Bahrain and Indonesia make up Group E. Indonesia poses no real threat here but the group will not be short on excitement. Iran are the top seeds in the group and have qualified for World Cups recently, while Qatar was just awarded the hosting rights for the 2022 World Cup and are expected to atleast make the final round. Then there's Bahrain. Bahrain made it all the way to the intercontinental playoffs the last two times they attempted to qualify. They faced Trinidad and Tobago in the 2006 playoff for the final World Cup spot and in 2010 they battled with New Zealand. Both times they lost barely. This cycle they go into this semi round as a third seeded team but something tells me they'll have a lot to say about who progresses and who doesn't from this group. They travel to Qatar in the 5th matchday then finish at home against Indonesia, so that game against Qatar will essentially decide whether they move on or not.
In Oceania, there's no real secret that New Zealand will win the confederation and represent them in the intercontinental playoff. Fiji, Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea will try prevent this but I doubt they will succeed. New Zealand's main treat on their way to possible World Cup qualification is going to be the 4th placed Concacaf team. New Zealand can expect to meet Costa Rica or Honduras or possibly Jamaica in that intercontinental playoff and personally I don't think they can defeat any of the three....we are a long way away from that however, and a lot can change. We'll see how it works out.
World Cup Draw Review: Africa
The World Cup qualifying draw for all continents (barring South America who didn't need a draw) took place on Saturday in Brazil. The continent of Africa is using a format that begins with a preliminery round that has 24 teams playing in 12 playoffs. The 12 winners will then move on to the second round which will be a group stage. The preliminery round of 24 teams includes some notable quality teams, such as Congo, Congo DR, Togo and Kenya. Assuming these four move on to the second round of qualifying they will most likely be joined by Namibia, Liberia, Mozambique, Burundi, Rwanda and the winners of Equitorial Guinea vs Madagascar, Tanzania vs Chad and Somalia vs Ethiopia (Ethiopia is favored in this rivalry). Mauritania will be the only African nation to not partake in qualification this time around. These playoffs will take place on November 11th with the return legs on November 15th.
The second round was also drawn on Saturday and here's a review of the groups as well as what we can expect. Group A features, South Africa, Botswana, Central African Republic and the winner of Somalia vs Ethiopia. Only the winner of each group progresses from this round and I think South Africa should be the winner of this group easily. If there's any challenge it will come from Botswana.
Group B includes Tunisia, Cape Verde, Sierre Leone and the winner of Equitorial Guinea vs Madagascar. This group will come down to Tunisia winning surely, but the Cape Verde Islands have an outside chance granted they defeat the teams they are expected to and get an upset over Tunisia.
In Group C we have Cote d'Ivoire, Morocco, Gambia and the winner of Chad vs Tanzania. This will arguably be the group of death in Africa. Cote d'Ivoire should be one of the strongest on the continent, while Morocco aren't that far removed from being one of the continent's top level nations. Gambia won't be a walk over either and can easily take points from either of the top 2 teams. If Morocco plays to the top of their ability we will have a close one here.
Ghana, Zambia, Sudan and the winner of the Burundi and Lesotho tie make up Group D. At first glance Ghana are the clear favorites but Zambia are traditionally tough in qualifying while Sudan can hold their own. Ghana should be good enough to win the group but an upset wouldn't be out of the question.
Group E involves Burkina Faso, Gabon, Niger and the winners of Sao Tome and Principe vs Congo. I think its safe to assume that Congo will win the preliminery matchup and join the group. Burkina Faso are the 4th highest ranked team in Africa and have the quality to win the group but Gabon has every opportunity to win the group as well. Niger and Congo should give the top 2 enough problems to make this group a close one.
Nigeria should win Group F in all likelyhood, but they like to make things harder than it should be in qualifying. Malawi joins them in the group with the winners of Seychelles vs Kenya and Djibouti vs Namibia joining them.
Group G includes multiple time African Nations Cup Champion Egypt. They usually dominate the Nations Cup, (winning the last 3 tournaments) then fall flat in World Cup qualifying (last qualifying in 1990). They are joined by some tough opposition in Guinea, Zimbabwe and the winner of Comoros vs Mozambique. Guinea are very formidable and can seriously challenge Egypt for the group and Zimbabwe are the highest ranking 3rd seeded team. Mozambique are the highest ranking of the nations in the first round playoffs as well. If Egypt falter, and there's plenty opportunity to do so, Guinea or even Zimbabwe can win this group and shock the world.
Algeria, Mali and Benin were drawn into Group H with the winner of Eritrea and Rwanda joining them. Algeria and Mali will fight for the group while Benin and Rwanda will likely decide the outcome by taking points from one of the top 2.
Group I, Cameroon, Libya and the winner of Guinea-Bissau vs Togo and Swaziland vs Congo DR should be interesting. Cameroon are favorites undoubtedly but the group will realistically involve Togo and Congo DR. Both nations are not that far removed from being serious threats in World Cup qualifying. Libya also poses a threat and are not second seeded for no reason. Cameroon should be fine but 1 mistake may be enough in this group to derail them.
The final group will be made up of Senegal, Uganda, Angola and the winner of Mauritius vs Liberia. 2002 qualifiers Senegal and 2006 qualifiers Angola stand out in this group. I think it will be closer than the rankings and seedings suggest.
The Final Round this time around in Africa will be full of excitement and interest. The 10 group winners will be drawn into 5 playoffs with the 5 winners qualifying for the World Cup. Potentially we could have South Africa, Tunisia, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Burkina Faso/Gabon, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Cameroon and Senegal/Angola in 2 game playoffs for their spot at a World Cup. Imagine, South Africa vs Nigeria, Tunisia vs Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana vs Algeria, Burkina Faso/Gabon vs Cameroon and Egypt vs Senegal/Angola for a spot in the World Cup. There will no doubt be some thrilling matchups and thrilling finishes in Africa with the World Cup on the line!
The second round was also drawn on Saturday and here's a review of the groups as well as what we can expect. Group A features, South Africa, Botswana, Central African Republic and the winner of Somalia vs Ethiopia. Only the winner of each group progresses from this round and I think South Africa should be the winner of this group easily. If there's any challenge it will come from Botswana.
Group B includes Tunisia, Cape Verde, Sierre Leone and the winner of Equitorial Guinea vs Madagascar. This group will come down to Tunisia winning surely, but the Cape Verde Islands have an outside chance granted they defeat the teams they are expected to and get an upset over Tunisia.
In Group C we have Cote d'Ivoire, Morocco, Gambia and the winner of Chad vs Tanzania. This will arguably be the group of death in Africa. Cote d'Ivoire should be one of the strongest on the continent, while Morocco aren't that far removed from being one of the continent's top level nations. Gambia won't be a walk over either and can easily take points from either of the top 2 teams. If Morocco plays to the top of their ability we will have a close one here.
Ghana, Zambia, Sudan and the winner of the Burundi and Lesotho tie make up Group D. At first glance Ghana are the clear favorites but Zambia are traditionally tough in qualifying while Sudan can hold their own. Ghana should be good enough to win the group but an upset wouldn't be out of the question.
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| Ghana National Team |
Nigeria should win Group F in all likelyhood, but they like to make things harder than it should be in qualifying. Malawi joins them in the group with the winners of Seychelles vs Kenya and Djibouti vs Namibia joining them.
Group G includes multiple time African Nations Cup Champion Egypt. They usually dominate the Nations Cup, (winning the last 3 tournaments) then fall flat in World Cup qualifying (last qualifying in 1990). They are joined by some tough opposition in Guinea, Zimbabwe and the winner of Comoros vs Mozambique. Guinea are very formidable and can seriously challenge Egypt for the group and Zimbabwe are the highest ranking 3rd seeded team. Mozambique are the highest ranking of the nations in the first round playoffs as well. If Egypt falter, and there's plenty opportunity to do so, Guinea or even Zimbabwe can win this group and shock the world.
Algeria, Mali and Benin were drawn into Group H with the winner of Eritrea and Rwanda joining them. Algeria and Mali will fight for the group while Benin and Rwanda will likely decide the outcome by taking points from one of the top 2.
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| Cameroon |
The final group will be made up of Senegal, Uganda, Angola and the winner of Mauritius vs Liberia. 2002 qualifiers Senegal and 2006 qualifiers Angola stand out in this group. I think it will be closer than the rankings and seedings suggest.
The Final Round this time around in Africa will be full of excitement and interest. The 10 group winners will be drawn into 5 playoffs with the 5 winners qualifying for the World Cup. Potentially we could have South Africa, Tunisia, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Burkina Faso/Gabon, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Cameroon and Senegal/Angola in 2 game playoffs for their spot at a World Cup. Imagine, South Africa vs Nigeria, Tunisia vs Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana vs Algeria, Burkina Faso/Gabon vs Cameroon and Egypt vs Senegal/Angola for a spot in the World Cup. There will no doubt be some thrilling matchups and thrilling finishes in Africa with the World Cup on the line!
Monday, July 18, 2011
The Death of Brazil and World Cup Qualifying
The King is dead! The King is dead! Well maybe not but let's be honest with ourselves, this isn't the Brazil that we've gotten used too. This isn't the attack spearheaded by Ronaldo or Romario. It certainly isn't the creative squad that had Ronaldinho in the middle with his magic, and it definitely isn't the Brazil that put fear into the hearts of every nation across the world.
The downfall began at the 2006 World Cup. Ronaldo, the golden boy of the late 90's, had shown up well overweight and the amazing Ronaldinho ended up having a bad tournament by everyone's standards. Their new stars Robinho and Adriano both seemed to have their own personal issues and their defensive problems finally caught up with them. They exited the tournament without reaching the semi-finals for the first time since 1990. Even then Brazil possessed a different breed of player though. An overweight Ronaldo still managed to score 3 times in 5 games at a World Cup. It's hard to imagine any of their new crop of players being able to contribute in that manner.
After the 2006 tournament the team managed to win the Copa America in 2007 behind a great tournament from Robinho and then the 2009 Confederations Cup in exciting fashion. It would have been easy to consider the 2006 World Cup a fluke, but then came the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. The team again lost in the Quarter Finals. During this tournament the Brazilian downfall was arguably because of the uncharacteristic loss of composure by their players in tough situations. Dunga, who had been coach for the entire cycle was replaced after the tournament. It would have been easy to blame Dunga for the bad performance and he probably did deserve it, but the results have carried over apparently.
The 2011 Copa America on rival ground in Argentina never looked like it would be Brazil's tournament. They started off with a goalless draw with Venezuela, which was shocking for 2 reasons. (1) Brazil did not defeat historical whipping boys, Venezuela and (2) Brazil did not manage to score against historical whipping boys, Venezuela. It was followed by a 2-2 draw against Paraguay, in which Brazil needed an 89th minute equalizer from Fred to get the point. After 2 games they had a draw and a near loss, 2 points from 2 games. This very unBrazilian performance was followed by the group finale against Ecuador. After being tied at 2 goals in the second half, Brazil managed to pull away and win the game 4-2. The group ended with Brazil on 5 points and placed them in a Quarter Final bout with Paraguay. Unlike the first game, which ended 2-2, the Quarter Final matchup was a goalless draw. The second time in the tournament that Brazil failed to score. The match inevitably went to a penalty shootout and the Brazilians lost. Not only did they lose, but they lost without converting a single penalty...out of 4. Elano, Andre Santos and Fred missed the goal completely while Thiago Silva had his shot saved. Very unBrazilian indeed.
The new golden boy is the teenager, Neymar. I'm not sure if he'll ever get to the level of the great Brazilians of the past, but he'll definitely be in Brazilian plans for the remainder of this cycle. The next World Cup happens to be in Brazil, so the pressure will be on for them to perform at the tournament. They'll have the luxury of avoiding World Cup qualifying and preparing for the tournament. They will have almost 3 years to build a team capable of winning it all on home soil. We will see how it goes for the Brazilians.
There was a lot of football yesterday other than the Brazil-Paraguay game. There was the Women's World Cup final, which I will get to later. There was a World Cup Qualifying match in the Concacaf region, in which Belize beat Montserrat 3-1 to win the matchup 8-3 on aggregate. They will move on to Round 2 which will be drawn into groups at the big draw in Brazil on Saturday. There was also another Copa America Quarter Final yesterday. Venezuela managed to beat Chile 2-1 to move on to the Copa America semi-final where they will meet Paraguay, not Brazil.
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| Ronaldinho circa 2002 |
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| Ronaldo: early 2000's |
The 2011 Copa America on rival ground in Argentina never looked like it would be Brazil's tournament. They started off with a goalless draw with Venezuela, which was shocking for 2 reasons. (1) Brazil did not defeat historical whipping boys, Venezuela and (2) Brazil did not manage to score against historical whipping boys, Venezuela. It was followed by a 2-2 draw against Paraguay, in which Brazil needed an 89th minute equalizer from Fred to get the point. After 2 games they had a draw and a near loss, 2 points from 2 games. This very unBrazilian performance was followed by the group finale against Ecuador. After being tied at 2 goals in the second half, Brazil managed to pull away and win the game 4-2. The group ended with Brazil on 5 points and placed them in a Quarter Final bout with Paraguay. Unlike the first game, which ended 2-2, the Quarter Final matchup was a goalless draw. The second time in the tournament that Brazil failed to score. The match inevitably went to a penalty shootout and the Brazilians lost. Not only did they lose, but they lost without converting a single penalty...out of 4. Elano, Andre Santos and Fred missed the goal completely while Thiago Silva had his shot saved. Very unBrazilian indeed.
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| Neymar |
There was a lot of football yesterday other than the Brazil-Paraguay game. There was the Women's World Cup final, which I will get to later. There was a World Cup Qualifying match in the Concacaf region, in which Belize beat Montserrat 3-1 to win the matchup 8-3 on aggregate. They will move on to Round 2 which will be drawn into groups at the big draw in Brazil on Saturday. There was also another Copa America Quarter Final yesterday. Venezuela managed to beat Chile 2-1 to move on to the Copa America semi-final where they will meet Paraguay, not Brazil.
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