World Cup Qualifying: What Have We Learned?

After a few weeks away, I'm back and there's a lot to talk about on the agenda! Since my last post, World Cup qualifying and Euro Cup qualifying have taken place. Almost every team played two games in a 5 day span and the qualifying groups have all begun to take shape. We'll start today with World Cup qualifying in Asia and discuss what the results mean.

Group A (China, Iraq, Jordan, Singapore)

With the top two teams moving on to the final round from each group, groups like Group A would be fiercely contested. China, Iraq and Jordan are all quality squads while Singapore are good enough to play spoiler. Infact, Singapore almost played spoiler in the opening game at China. Singapore took the lead early only to lose 2-1. On the same day, in what was maybe the most important match of the group, Jordan beat Iraq in an away game.  The result was significant because it gave Jordan the upper hand over Iraq, a team that was considered similar in quality. It was also an away game for Jordan, the next time they play Iraq they will be at home and a draw may be enough to eliminate the Iraqis then. Four days later on September 6th the second games were played in the Group. Iraq and Singapore, both coming off of losses, met in Singapore and Iraq won 2-0 to earn their first 3 points while Singapore are yet to get a point. Game 1 winners, China and Jordan played for 1st place in Amman, Jordan and despite a goalless first half Jordan won the game 2-1 to move into first place alone with 6 points.

What Have We Learned?:
Jordan are a better team than expected and WILL qualify for the final round. They play Singapore in both of their next 2 games and should qualify for the final round with 2 wins. China plays Iraq in their next two games and they can also make their road to the final round easy with 6 or even 4 points. Iraq, who I expected to challenge for spot until they met Jordan in Jordan in game 5, may already be in too big of a hole. If Iraq can earn a win against China in the upcoming games however, they will help themselves greatly.

Group B (South Korea, UAE, Kuwait, Lebanon)


On paper, Group B looked clear cut. South Korea and Kuwait would progress while UAE would help decide who finished second with an upset here or there and Lebanon would finish bottom. The opening games went as expected, South Korea beat Lebanon at home 6-0 while Kuwait won 3-2 at UAE in a game that ended up closer than it should have. In the 2nd games we got more interesting results. Kuwait hosted South Korea and the match ended up in a 1-1 draw. The next match gave us our first real surprise with Lebanon beating UAE 3-1 at home. South Korea and Kuwait sit atop of the group with 4 points, while Lebanon is surprisingly on 3 points. The UAE are yet to earn any points.

What Have We Learned?:
Lebanon may not be as bad as originally thought and the UAE may not be as competitive as we had hoped. South Korea should put UAE out of their misery in the next 2 matches while an improved Lebanon may not be enough of a threat to prevent Kuwait from winning both of their next matches. The group looks all but settled with South Korea and Kuwait moving on to the last round predictably.

Group C (Japan, North Korea, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan)


This group was the group that had originally been looked at as the best and most competitive of the round. Japan are perhaps the best on the continent, while North Korea qualified for the last World Cup. Uzbekistan have come close to qualifying for World Cups recently and are becoming regulars in the final round as well. Syria was originally supposed to be the group's third seed and with them present the group have have 4 tough squads participating, but Syria were replaced by Tajikistan after it was discovered that they had used an ineligable player in the previous round versus Tajikistan. Syria's disqualification, meant that the group would finally have a clear bottom feeder. The first games in the group showed just how tough the group would be. Tajikistan, originally eliminated in the last round by Syria, did a good job and held Uzbekistan at 0-0 for most of the game before losing 1-0. In the matchup of World Cup 2010 participants, Japan and North Korea played a tough match in Saitama. Japan won the match 1-0 on a 94th minute goal, North Korea were very close to earning a point away against the groups best but had to settle for nothing. The 2nd game had North Korea hosting Tajikistan and they won 1-0 to earn their first 3 points, had they held on in Japan they would have 4 points from 2 games...not bad for a 4th seed. In the other match, Uzbekistan scored early on Japan but the match ended in a tie. Japan and Uzbekistan are deadlocked on 4 points and goal difference. North Korea are on 3 points and predictably Tajikistan are on 0, despite two respectable performances.

What Have We Learned?:
Even with Tajikistan joining the group, it is still a tight close group. Uzbekistan aren't flashy but get the job done and are in good position. Japan have not played like the group favorites yet but have 4 points to show for it, though it could have easily been 2 points with them in 3rd place. North Korea could be on 4 points but have to settle for 3. With two teams going through, Japan are safe and will be fine, Uzbekistan face North Korea in their next two and that will decide who joins the Japanese in the final round. Tajikistan are doing well to represent themselves and the group is just as tough as we expected.

Group D (Australia, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand)


Like Group C, this group was also considered to be pretty tough before it started. Australia and Saudi Arabia should be the clear favorites,while Oman and Thailand can both play spoiler with no clear minnow. Australia played Thailand first and in typical spoiler fashion Thailand scored first. Australia went into the half at home down 1-0. The second half went more like we expected and Australia survived the scare to win 2-1. Saudi Arabia travelled to Oman and unlike Australia they weren't able to come out of a close game with a win. They had to accept 0-0 against a team that should not be equal to them. Thailand went into the 2nd match as the only team in the group to not have earned a point but quickly changed that, winning 3-0 against Oman. Australia travelled to Saudi Arabia to play in what should have been the closest match of the entire group, instead it was not close and Australia won convincingly 3-1. After 2 games Australia have earned full points while Saudi Arabia is struggling to place in the top 2.

What Have We Learned?:
Saudi Arabia tied Oman 0-0 and Oman lost to Thailand 3-0. That says a lot about where Saudi Arabia have fallen. It is not certain whether Saudi Arabia will be able to qualify for the final round given their performances so far. That opens the door for Thailand. Oman play Australia twice in a row now and may fall out of contention. Australia may finish this group with full points. Saudi Arabia travels to Thailand next, keep an eye on that match. If Saudi Arabia can't win that match they will not qualify for the final round.

Group E (Iran, Qatar, Bahrain, Indonesia)


This group, more than maybe any other group, has turned into a 3 team race. Iran hosted Indonesia to begin their campaign, and predictably they won 3-0. Bahrain hosted Qatar and that match ended 0-0, keeping both teams in it. Bahrain versus Qatar I felt would be the defining matchup of the group as they fight for second place and this game showed just how close they are. Bahrain got their first win in their next game, defeating Indonesia 2-0. The win took them to 4 points from 2 games. Qatar, the 2022 World Cup hosts, played host to Iran in their 2nd match and it ended in a draw, 1-1. Iran now sits on 4 points, like Bahrain and Qatar have 2 draws leaving them on 2 points.

What Have We Learned?:
We've learned that Indonesia stands alone at the bottom of the group. Iran, Bahrain and Qatar compete for 2 spots in the final round and all look capable. Iran play Bahrain twice in a row now, and both are tied atop the group with 4 points. Qatar get Indonesia twice in a row now. Qatar can end up on 8 points after the 2 matches, while Bahrain or Iran can fall significantly behind by that time. Qatar finishes at Iran and before that they host Bahrain though, so it'll be tough across the board and exciting to see who qualifies to the final round and who gets eliminated from this group.

In the next few days I'll discuss what we learned in Concacaf as well as in Euro Cup qualifying and finally I'll make a post about the qualifying formats of each confederation and how to improve them.

World Cup Draw Review: Asia and Oceania with a touch of South America

Asia and Oceania are still not merged into one confederation and I have no idea why! Before we get to those confederations though, let's take a quick look at South America. I have spent a big part of the summer watching and writing about South American football, so I have a fairly good idea of where each team is in terms of quality. Brazil qualifies automatically as hosts and therefore will not take part in the qualifiers this time around. The other 9 South American teams however will face off in one big 9 team group as usual. There are 4.5 spots in the World Cup on the line. That means 4 teams qualify automatically with the 5th placing team playing off with an Asian team for a spot in the World Cup. We can potentially have 6 South American teams in the World Cup with Brazil added to those possibly 5 spots. 6 teams out of the overall 10 nations seems like a bit much to me, but oh well lets see how that works. With 9 teams facing each other in 1 big group we will always have 1 team off on a matchday. Personally I expect to see Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Colombia to qualify. Chile should get the 5th spot with Ecuador challenging them all the way.

Colombia National Team

 In Asia we have already had 2 rounds of football to narrow the field of teams down to 20. These 20 teams were drawn into 5 groups over the weekend. The top 2 teams in each group will move on to the next round. This system protects the regions top teams to some extent while allowing for minor upsets in which teams move on.

Group A drew China, Jordan, Iraq and Singapore together. China, Jordan and Iraq should all be in the fight for the top 2 spots. Singapore I don't see moving on but they may not exactly be walkovers either. Iraq and Jordan will open against each other in Iraq and it will be a good opportunity for either side to start off their campaign on a strong note. Jordan needs the fast start more as they finish their campaign against Iraq at home and then on the road against China.

Group B brings South Korea, Kuwait, U.A.E and Lebanon together in another interesting group. South Korea should be favored and even with a slip up should be able to finish top 2 in the group. Kuwait and the U.A.E will battle for the other spot while Lebanon will add some excitement as they pick up points. The key matchup here is U.A.E hosting South Korea in their 4th match. If U.A.E are able to get points in this matchup it will go a long way in determining if they get one of the top 2 spots.

As interesting as the first two groups may be, Group C is the group of death in Asia. Japan, North Korea, Uzbekistan and Syria are sure to excite in a group that could see any of the 4 nations moving on to the next round. Japan of course are favorites but all of their 3 opponents are capable of qualifying to the final round along with them. North Korea hosts Japan in the 5th matchday in a very important match for them, while Uzbekistan will try to defeat Syria at home the same day to avoid needing too much versus Japan in the final match.

Japan Team

Group D, involves Australia, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Thailand. Saudi Arabia usually qualifies for the final round and up until the last World Cup they were good enough to qualify for the big tournament. They are very shaky nowadays though and missing the final round is not out of the question. Australia should be the favorite in the group and I have no doubt they will win it. Oman and Thailand are a bit mysterious but Saudi Arabia should be weary of both. If Oman can beat Saudi Arabia at home in their opening game they will get an early strong hold on the 2nd spot. They face Thailand second and play two of their final three games at home.

Iran, Qatar, Bahrain and Indonesia make up Group E. Indonesia poses no real threat here but the group will not be short on excitement. Iran are the top seeds in the group and have qualified for World Cups recently, while Qatar was just awarded the hosting rights for the 2022 World Cup and are expected to atleast make the final round. Then there's Bahrain. Bahrain made it all the way to the intercontinental playoffs the last two times they attempted to qualify. They faced Trinidad and Tobago in the 2006 playoff for the final World Cup spot and in 2010 they battled with New Zealand. Both times they lost barely. This cycle they go into this semi round as a third seeded team but something tells me they'll have a lot to say about who progresses and who doesn't from this group. They travel to Qatar in the 5th matchday then finish at home against Indonesia, so that game against Qatar will essentially decide whether they move on or not.

In Oceania, there's no real secret that New Zealand will win the confederation and represent them in the intercontinental playoff. Fiji, Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea will try prevent this but I doubt they will succeed. New Zealand's main treat on their way to possible World Cup qualification is going to be the 4th placed Concacaf team. New Zealand can expect to meet Costa Rica or Honduras or possibly Jamaica in that intercontinental playoff and personally I don't think they can defeat any of the three....we are a long way away from that however, and a lot can change. We'll see how it works out.