After a few weeks away, I'm back and there's a lot to talk about on the agenda! Since my last post, World Cup qualifying and Euro Cup qualifying have taken place. Almost every team played two games in a 5 day span and the qualifying groups have all begun to take shape. We'll start today with World Cup qualifying in Asia and discuss what the results mean.
Group A (China, Iraq, Jordan, Singapore)
With the top two teams moving on to the final round from each group, groups like Group A would be fiercely contested. China, Iraq and Jordan are all quality squads while Singapore are good enough to play spoiler. Infact, Singapore almost played spoiler in the opening game at China. Singapore took the lead early only to lose 2-1. On the same day, in what was maybe the most important match of the group, Jordan beat Iraq in an away game. The result was significant because it gave Jordan the upper hand over Iraq, a team that was considered similar in quality. It was also an away game for Jordan, the next time they play Iraq they will be at home and a draw may be enough to eliminate the Iraqis then. Four days later on September 6th the second games were played in the Group. Iraq and Singapore, both coming off of losses, met in Singapore and Iraq won 2-0 to earn their first 3 points while Singapore are yet to get a point. Game 1 winners, China and Jordan played for 1st place in Amman, Jordan and despite a goalless first half Jordan won the game 2-1 to move into first place alone with 6 points.
What Have We Learned?:
Jordan are a better team than expected and WILL qualify for the final round. They play Singapore in both of their next 2 games and should qualify for the final round with 2 wins. China plays Iraq in their next two games and they can also make their road to the final round easy with 6 or even 4 points. Iraq, who I expected to challenge for spot until they met Jordan in Jordan in game 5, may already be in too big of a hole. If Iraq can earn a win against China in the upcoming games however, they will help themselves greatly.
Group B (South Korea, UAE, Kuwait, Lebanon)
On paper, Group B looked clear cut. South Korea and Kuwait would progress while UAE would help decide who finished second with an upset here or there and Lebanon would finish bottom. The opening games went as expected, South Korea beat Lebanon at home 6-0 while Kuwait won 3-2 at UAE in a game that ended up closer than it should have. In the 2nd games we got more interesting results. Kuwait hosted South Korea and the match ended up in a 1-1 draw. The next match gave us our first real surprise with Lebanon beating UAE 3-1 at home. South Korea and Kuwait sit atop of the group with 4 points, while Lebanon is surprisingly on 3 points. The UAE are yet to earn any points.
What Have We Learned?:
Lebanon may not be as bad as originally thought and the UAE may not be as competitive as we had hoped. South Korea should put UAE out of their misery in the next 2 matches while an improved Lebanon may not be enough of a threat to prevent Kuwait from winning both of their next matches. The group looks all but settled with South Korea and Kuwait moving on to the last round predictably.
Group C (Japan, North Korea, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan)
This group was the group that had originally been looked at as the best and most competitive of the round. Japan are perhaps the best on the continent, while North Korea qualified for the last World Cup. Uzbekistan have come close to qualifying for World Cups recently and are becoming regulars in the final round as well. Syria was originally supposed to be the group's third seed and with them present the group have have 4 tough squads participating, but Syria were replaced by Tajikistan after it was discovered that they had used an ineligable player in the previous round versus Tajikistan. Syria's disqualification, meant that the group would finally have a clear bottom feeder. The first games in the group showed just how tough the group would be. Tajikistan, originally eliminated in the last round by Syria, did a good job and held Uzbekistan at 0-0 for most of the game before losing 1-0. In the matchup of World Cup 2010 participants, Japan and North Korea played a tough match in Saitama. Japan won the match 1-0 on a 94th minute goal, North Korea were very close to earning a point away against the groups best but had to settle for nothing. The 2nd game had North Korea hosting Tajikistan and they won 1-0 to earn their first 3 points, had they held on in Japan they would have 4 points from 2 games...not bad for a 4th seed. In the other match, Uzbekistan scored early on Japan but the match ended in a tie. Japan and Uzbekistan are deadlocked on 4 points and goal difference. North Korea are on 3 points and predictably Tajikistan are on 0, despite two respectable performances.
What Have We Learned?:
Even with Tajikistan joining the group, it is still a tight close group. Uzbekistan aren't flashy but get the job done and are in good position. Japan have not played like the group favorites yet but have 4 points to show for it, though it could have easily been 2 points with them in 3rd place. North Korea could be on 4 points but have to settle for 3. With two teams going through, Japan are safe and will be fine, Uzbekistan face North Korea in their next two and that will decide who joins the Japanese in the final round. Tajikistan are doing well to represent themselves and the group is just as tough as we expected.
Group D (Australia, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand)
Like Group C, this group was also considered to be pretty tough before it started. Australia and Saudi Arabia should be the clear favorites,while Oman and Thailand can both play spoiler with no clear minnow. Australia played Thailand first and in typical spoiler fashion Thailand scored first. Australia went into the half at home down 1-0. The second half went more like we expected and Australia survived the scare to win 2-1. Saudi Arabia travelled to Oman and unlike Australia they weren't able to come out of a close game with a win. They had to accept 0-0 against a team that should not be equal to them. Thailand went into the 2nd match as the only team in the group to not have earned a point but quickly changed that, winning 3-0 against Oman. Australia travelled to Saudi Arabia to play in what should have been the closest match of the entire group, instead it was not close and Australia won convincingly 3-1. After 2 games Australia have earned full points while Saudi Arabia is struggling to place in the top 2.
What Have We Learned?:
Saudi Arabia tied Oman 0-0 and Oman lost to Thailand 3-0. That says a lot about where Saudi Arabia have fallen. It is not certain whether Saudi Arabia will be able to qualify for the final round given their performances so far. That opens the door for Thailand. Oman play Australia twice in a row now and may fall out of contention. Australia may finish this group with full points. Saudi Arabia travels to Thailand next, keep an eye on that match. If Saudi Arabia can't win that match they will not qualify for the final round.
Group E (Iran, Qatar, Bahrain, Indonesia)
This group, more than maybe any other group, has turned into a 3 team race. Iran hosted Indonesia to begin their campaign, and predictably they won 3-0. Bahrain hosted Qatar and that match ended 0-0, keeping both teams in it. Bahrain versus Qatar I felt would be the defining matchup of the group as they fight for second place and this game showed just how close they are. Bahrain got their first win in their next game, defeating Indonesia 2-0. The win took them to 4 points from 2 games. Qatar, the 2022 World Cup hosts, played host to Iran in their 2nd match and it ended in a draw, 1-1. Iran now sits on 4 points, like Bahrain and Qatar have 2 draws leaving them on 2 points.
What Have We Learned?:
We've learned that Indonesia stands alone at the bottom of the group. Iran, Bahrain and Qatar compete for 2 spots in the final round and all look capable. Iran play Bahrain twice in a row now, and both are tied atop the group with 4 points. Qatar get Indonesia twice in a row now. Qatar can end up on 8 points after the 2 matches, while Bahrain or Iran can fall significantly behind by that time. Qatar finishes at Iran and before that they host Bahrain though, so it'll be tough across the board and exciting to see who qualifies to the final round and who gets eliminated from this group.
In the next few days I'll discuss what we learned in Concacaf as well as in Euro Cup qualifying and finally I'll make a post about the qualifying formats of each confederation and how to improve them.
