World Cup Draw Review: Europe

I've saved the best for last. Finally, the draw from Europe as decided this past weekend in Brazil. The European confederation is the biggest in terms of quantity and everyone who tunes into the draw does so to see their own confederation and then Europe. So what kind of mouth watering matchups do we have in Europe this cycle? Well before we get to that I'll just quickly go through the European format. The 53 member nations were drawn into 9 groups. The winner of each group qualifies for the World Cup while the 8 best runners up will playoff for the 4 remaining spots. The worst of the 9 runners up will not be drawn into the playoffs and will be eliminated. The ranking of second placed teams will be based on the individual teams records versus the teams placed 1st to 5th in their group, this is because group I only has 5 teams while all others have 6. In all Europe will be awarded 13 spots at the next World Cup. Norway and Greece were shock 1st seeds and were the teams everyone wanted to be drawn with. France, Russia, Serbia, Sweden and Denmark were the toughest of the 2nd seeds and teams that most others wanted to avoid. This is how things fell into place in Europe.

Group A

Croatia, Serbia, Belgium and Scotland could all challenge in this group, while Macedonia and Wales should be the bottom feeders. At first glance this may not appear to be a very tough group but Macedonia and Wales are far from the easiest minnows that could have been drawn to this group. Belgium and Scotland are both fully capable of challenging for atleast the runner up spot in this group, if they fail then they will surely play spoiler. Croatia and Serbia will fight for the automatic World Cup berth but there's a rivalry between them that is sure to make their matchups as well as their fight for 1st competitive and thrilling. I will not rule out the possibility that the group winner will be the team that manages not to drop points against Scotland and Belgium. Focusing on the bigger picture will be more important in this group than most others. Belgium, whether they qualify or not, will be the key in this group.

Belgium

Group B

Unlike Group A, Group B actually looks hard on paper and at first site is the hardest that the draw has produced. Italy, Denmark, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Armenia and Malta form this group. Italy, though they had a tough World Cup 2010, are 1st seeds for a reason and usually don't do poorly in qualifying. Whether they finish 1st or qualify through the playoffs as a runner up is another question. If they manage to falter and go the runner up route, Denmark and Czech Republic are more than capable of taking the top spot. Denmark also had a bad World Cup 2010 but are efficient enough to cruise through this group. The Czech Republic are a bit of a mystery, they usually do very well or fall apart before the end. If they play to the top of their game for the entire campaign they will be tough to stop. Bulgaria may be the key a lot like Belgium is in Group A. Not an immediate threat to qualify, Bulgaria can defeat any of the top 3 and at a crucial moment in qualifying that can change everything. Armenia and Malta should not put up much of a fight here. In this group keep an eye on the top 4 positions at all times as things should get interesting.

Denmark

Group C

Group C can also be argued to be the toughest of the bunch. Germany, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Faroe Islands and Kazakhstan were drawn together for this group. There's not much I need to say about Germany, they are top class as always and regardless of opponents they should qualify. Having Germany in your group pretty much takes automatic qualification away but that doesn't mean that Sweden, Ireland or Austria will just roll over and die. Infact, Austria has played Germany tough recently in Euro Cup qualifying and the Germans were lucky to come away with a point. Austria always seems to play Germany tough for obvious reasons but I highly doubt that they are of the quality to challenge for a runner up position. Sweden and Ireland however, will challenge for that spot. Sweden are the most likely to get that position and they will undoubtedly give Germany a good run for the group's top spot. Ireland can take points away from anyone but usually struggle to dominate the minnows in these situations. Sweden and Ireland's faith may rely directly on how they do against each other. If Germany drop points and either Sweden or Ireland get on a roll we can have an interesting race. If not, the fight for second will make for some thrilling football.

Sweden

Group D

Unlike the first 3 groups, this one does not look like it will be much of a fight. World Cup 2010 runner up, The Netherlands will be joined by Turkey, Hungary, Romania, Estonia and Andorra. The Netherlands are clear favorites to win the group and could do so with full points as they did last time. Turkey technically are the most likely to challenge them and historically have done well against the Netherlands. Turkey have not exactly followed up their World Cup 2002 performance with success but can challenge when at their best. Hungary are a mystery at the moment. They have not qualified for a World Cup since the 80's and have not finished as a runner up since 1998 but they have a young talented team and have been improving. Romania have not made a World Cup since 1998 but are in the perfect group to try make it back to the big tournament. If Turkey slip and they play Holland at the right time, Romania can earn the runners up spot and try qualify through the playoffs. Estonia and Andorra won't challenge much as minnows but can play spoiler potentially.

Holland

Group E

Above I mentioned that Norway and Greece were seeded and Group E was the first to be seeded by one of these teams, Norway. Slovenia, Switzerland, Albania, Cyprus and Iceland joins the Norwegians in the group. Norway, despite not qualifying for a World Cup since 1998 will benefit from being seeded in this somewhat simple group. Slovenia and Switzerland both qualified for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa and will try to do the same this time around. Norway, Slovenia and Switzerland all have a chance to win the group and there's not much seperation between them. This will be one of those groups where the team that ends up 3rd will regret not seizing the opportunity. Albania, Cyprus and Iceland pose no direct threat to the top 3 but will play a direct roll in who qualifies by taking away points. Albania should be top spoiler.

Switzerland

Group F

Portugal and Russia are the toughest teams in Group F. Israel, Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan and Luxembourg round out the group. Israel and Northern Ireland pose a direct threat to the top 2 teams in terms of stealing points. The best chance for either of those 2 nations however will be to try get into the playoffs and hope for a favorable matchup. Azerbaijan and Luxembourg will play the role of minnows well. Portugal and Russia will challenge each other directly and 1 match can end up deciding who goes directly to Brazil and who goes to the playoffs. Russia has not played in a World Cup since 2002, but I think this group gives them their best opportunity since.

Russia

Group G

Group G is by far the easiest group overall in Europe and this is a direct result of Greece's seeding. Greece, Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithuania, Latvia and Liechtenstein form the group. Bosnia and Herzegovina interest me the most in this group. Bosnia have been knocking on the door for quite some time and this may be their final chance to qualify for the World Cup while they still have this generation of players. The group definitely allows for the possibility of Bosnia doing well, but Slovakia and Greece will have to falter a bit to allow that. Both Slovakia and Greece participated in the last World Cup and are going to be favoured. Slovakia and Greece will have to focus on each other's movements up and down the table while keeping an eye on Bosnia. Lithuania and Latvia are not poor in quality and should have some say in the way the group plays out. Lithuania could actually challenge for a runners up spot if they play to the best of their abilities, but that's a long shot right now. Liechtenstein can also produce a shock result that can prove costly to one of the contenders.


Bosnia and Herzegovina

Group H

After 4 not so spectacular groups we have a pretty interesting one in Group H. England are the top seeds in the group, followed by upstart Montenegro. A pair of 2006 qualifiers, Ukraine and Poland, can also compete for a qualifying spot all the way to the final matchday and Moldova and San Marino round out the group. We all know of England and their capabilities so it's no surprise that they are expected to qualify from this group. Whether or not they do it with ease, or at all, is another story. The English are not a poor side at all, the group is just extremely tricky and these kinds of groups can cause a lot of problems for many of the top teams. Montenegro are a mystery to me, they were part of Serbia and Montenegro when they qualified for the 2006 World Cup but a small part at that. They have had good results in the years since their formation as a team though and earned their high seeding. Former Yugoslav republics tend to do well in World Cup qualifying however, so Montenegro should be paid attention to. While Moldova are not a threat to qualify and San Marino will shock the world if they earn a single point, Poland and Ukraine are legitimate threats. Both nations co-host Euro Cup 2012 and therefore have not been playing those current qualifiers, but once playing that tournament at home they should be ready to compete and could give England a run for their money. It will be interesting to see who plays who on the final matchday.

Ukraine

Group I

Finally we get to Group I, the 5 team group and what a group it is. Defending FIFA World Cup champion, Spain and 2006 World Cup runner up, France will battle it out for the top spot. The three remaining teams in the group are Belarus, Georgia and Finland...far from the easiest group. It's inevitable that one of the top 2 will have to go through the playoffs if they are to make it to the World Cup. Belarus can make things very interesting if they were to challenge for that runner up spot essentially eliminating Spain or France, could you imagine a World Cup without its defending champion? Georgia and Finland will not be pushovers either by any means and this group will most likely go down to the final matchday, if only to seperate 1st from 2nd.

World Cup Draw Review: Concacaf

Concacaf has finally gotten a system that seems fair and likely to qualify the best teams to the World Cup. There was still a problem this time around however, typical for the region. The problem is that unlike the rest of the world Concacaf chose to use the rankings from March for their seeding, four months prior to the draw. The direct result of this unwise choice was Cuba being seeded while Panama, El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago and Canada had to go through the first group round.

The first group round makes sence for Concacaf. Six groups of four teams in which only the group winner progresses. This gives a lot of the smaller nations a chance to play more than just 2 games and against more than just one opponent. While the eventual result of most of these groups are obvious, in the long run I think the region will benefit from more matches for the smaller nations. The draw in Brazil this past weekend formed the groups for this first group round as well as the Semi Round that will follow.

Group A is made up of El Salvador, Suriname, Cayman Islands and the Dominican Republic. El Salvador made an amazing run all the way to the final round (the Hexagonal) of qualifying last cycle and though it was unexpected they did well to represent themselves. Suriname made it to the Semi Round last time in what was also an unexpected performance. At that stage they put up little fight though. The Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic have not had much previous qualifying success and group play in the World Cup is a new experience for both. El Salvador are a force at home versus the region's best and should not have much problem versus opponents of this quality. I fully expect them to win the group and qualify for the Semi Round with ease.

El Salvador

2006 qualifiers, Trinidad and Tobago were drawn into Group B where they will meet Guyana, Barbados and Bermuda. Given the talent in this round, this group is one of the strongest. Trinidad and Tobago qualified for the World Cup in 2006 but since then have been on a downward spiral and have not even played a match this year. They have played Guyana a few times over the last few years however and that may go a long way for them. Guyana has never made it to the Semi Round and even with Trinidad and Tobago's struggles they will most likely not make it past this group. Barbados made it to the Semi Round in the World Cup 2002 qualifying cycle and even managed a victory over Costa Rica to open their campaign. After that historic win however they were not able to record another victory. Since then Barbados has fallen a bit and will most likely not be much of a threat on the group. Bermuda has not done well in World Cup qualifying since the 1994 cycle but the last time around they managed to beat Trinidad and Tobago in Trinidad. If they can repeat that feat it will go a long way in this group. Expect a close group but without many major upsets.

Trinidad and Tobago

Group C should be called the group of minnows. Panama, who are one of the region's best currently, will face Dominica, Nicaragua and the Bahamas. None of those three have ever made it to the Semi Round and rarely qualify for regional tournaments. The Bahamas are a super minnow and will most likely not earn a point. Nicaragua qualified for a Gold Cup not too long ago but are usually not a threat in World Cup qualifying. Dominica, regardless of being second seeds, are just as bad as Nicaragua if not worst. Panama made it all the way to the Hexagonal in the 2006 cycle but followed it up by failing to qualify for the Semi Round last time around. Panama should win the group with full points and move on.

Canada, St. Kitts and Nevis, Puerto Rico and St.Lucia make up Group D. Puerto Rico and St.Lucia are true minnows while St.Kitts are good enough to beat both but not beat Canada once. Canada, traditional underachievers, are used to the Semi Round and should be back there again. They have not qualified for the Hexagonal the last 3 times though, not since the 1998 cycle. St.Kitts played in the Semi Round in the 2006 cycle but were embarrased by Mexico there. If there's any doubt as to who will win the group going into the final match, St.Kitts having to play in Canada in November will settle it.

If there's a tough group in this round then Group E wins the title hands down. Grenada, Guatemala, St.Vincent and the Grenadines and Belize make up a thrilling group. Grenada have done well enough over the past 5 years to warrant being seeded in this round but will have their work cut out for them. Their toughest opponents are Guatemala, who are regulars at the Semi Round and true favorites to win the group by most. St.Vincent and the Grenadines had a great level of success for a nation of their size from the 1994 cycle to the 2006 cycle and no one can take their reputation away from them. They made the Semi Round in every one of those 4 cycles before failing in the 2010 cycle. Belize will bring up the rear but are far from the easiest minnow that could've been drawn into the group. While Guatemala are favorites they will play their final 2 matches against Grenada with the last being in Grenada. Playing in the Caribbean is never an easy task for Central American nations and could prove decisive for Guatemala. St.Vincent and the Grenadines however may benefit from being placed as a third seed. They play their final 2 matches against Belize and if they manage to keep things close going into those final 2 games it may put them in great position to win the group. They're also familiar enough with Grenada to not be threatened by their ranking.

Grenada

The final preliminery group includes Haiti, Antigua, Curacao and the US Virgin Islands. Overall this is the weakest group and there may not be much outside interest here. The US Virgin Islands will end play with 0 points and I can garauntee that before a ball is kicked. Curacao played formerly as the Netherland Antilles, well atleast all their players did before the Antilles broke apart. Antigua, while improving over the years, can threaten Haiti for the group but if they get past then they will suffer a harsh reality upon reaching the next round. Haiti would usually be the outright favorites in the group but after the tragedy that struck their nation last year...who knows what kind of effort they will put forth.

The Semi Round is where the quality of football gets higher and we seperate the men from the boys. Group A includes the USA and Jamaica from the seeded teams and most likely Haiti and Guatemala from the groups I listed above. The USA will of course finish top 2 and qualify from this group to the Hexagonal. Guatemala (if they mak it to this stage) will put up a nice challenge, but truthfully Jamaica are as good, if not better, than their 1998 team that qualified for the World Cup in France. Haiti, if they make it past the previous round, will finish last in the group.

Jamaica

Group B in the Semi Round should be the toughest. It involves Mexico and Costa Rica from the seeded pots and most likely Trinidad and Tobago and El Salvador as winners of their preliminery groups. Mexico are traditionally the region's best and Costa Rica can be as strong as the top seeds on any given day. Trinidad and Tobago realistically should not pose much of a threat to either of the top 2, while El Salvador should be dominant at home but not good enough overall. If all teams play at their best though, expect fireworks and surprises.

Group C will be the weakest of the bunch overall. Honduras and Cuba were the seeded teams assigned to this group and they are expected to be joined by Canada and Panama. Honduras are not far removed from their World Cup appearance in 2010 but a Gold Cup loss to Jamaica would suggest that they are closer to the second seeds than they are to USA and Mexico in quality. Cuba, while seeded, will in all likelihood finish last in the group. They don't travel well, as you would expect wth a country in their situation, and they just don't have the players to compete against the better teams in the region. Canada has a nice opportunity to make it to the Hexagonal for the first time since the 1998 cycle, but they usually underachieve and Panama can cause them trouble. Panama are my pick to finish 2nd in this group as they have been improving steadily since 2004 and the draw was favorable to them.

Cuba

I will revisit these groups once we get a clearer picture of what these groups will looks like. The preliminery round will begin on September 2nd and the road to Brazil will begin to take shape in North America. By the end of the year we will know for sure what the Semi Round groups will look like and what to expect heading deeper into this cycle.

World Cup Draw Review: Asia and Oceania with a touch of South America

Asia and Oceania are still not merged into one confederation and I have no idea why! Before we get to those confederations though, let's take a quick look at South America. I have spent a big part of the summer watching and writing about South American football, so I have a fairly good idea of where each team is in terms of quality. Brazil qualifies automatically as hosts and therefore will not take part in the qualifiers this time around. The other 9 South American teams however will face off in one big 9 team group as usual. There are 4.5 spots in the World Cup on the line. That means 4 teams qualify automatically with the 5th placing team playing off with an Asian team for a spot in the World Cup. We can potentially have 6 South American teams in the World Cup with Brazil added to those possibly 5 spots. 6 teams out of the overall 10 nations seems like a bit much to me, but oh well lets see how that works. With 9 teams facing each other in 1 big group we will always have 1 team off on a matchday. Personally I expect to see Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Colombia to qualify. Chile should get the 5th spot with Ecuador challenging them all the way.

Colombia National Team

 In Asia we have already had 2 rounds of football to narrow the field of teams down to 20. These 20 teams were drawn into 5 groups over the weekend. The top 2 teams in each group will move on to the next round. This system protects the regions top teams to some extent while allowing for minor upsets in which teams move on.

Group A drew China, Jordan, Iraq and Singapore together. China, Jordan and Iraq should all be in the fight for the top 2 spots. Singapore I don't see moving on but they may not exactly be walkovers either. Iraq and Jordan will open against each other in Iraq and it will be a good opportunity for either side to start off their campaign on a strong note. Jordan needs the fast start more as they finish their campaign against Iraq at home and then on the road against China.

Group B brings South Korea, Kuwait, U.A.E and Lebanon together in another interesting group. South Korea should be favored and even with a slip up should be able to finish top 2 in the group. Kuwait and the U.A.E will battle for the other spot while Lebanon will add some excitement as they pick up points. The key matchup here is U.A.E hosting South Korea in their 4th match. If U.A.E are able to get points in this matchup it will go a long way in determining if they get one of the top 2 spots.

As interesting as the first two groups may be, Group C is the group of death in Asia. Japan, North Korea, Uzbekistan and Syria are sure to excite in a group that could see any of the 4 nations moving on to the next round. Japan of course are favorites but all of their 3 opponents are capable of qualifying to the final round along with them. North Korea hosts Japan in the 5th matchday in a very important match for them, while Uzbekistan will try to defeat Syria at home the same day to avoid needing too much versus Japan in the final match.

Japan Team

Group D, involves Australia, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Thailand. Saudi Arabia usually qualifies for the final round and up until the last World Cup they were good enough to qualify for the big tournament. They are very shaky nowadays though and missing the final round is not out of the question. Australia should be the favorite in the group and I have no doubt they will win it. Oman and Thailand are a bit mysterious but Saudi Arabia should be weary of both. If Oman can beat Saudi Arabia at home in their opening game they will get an early strong hold on the 2nd spot. They face Thailand second and play two of their final three games at home.

Iran, Qatar, Bahrain and Indonesia make up Group E. Indonesia poses no real threat here but the group will not be short on excitement. Iran are the top seeds in the group and have qualified for World Cups recently, while Qatar was just awarded the hosting rights for the 2022 World Cup and are expected to atleast make the final round. Then there's Bahrain. Bahrain made it all the way to the intercontinental playoffs the last two times they attempted to qualify. They faced Trinidad and Tobago in the 2006 playoff for the final World Cup spot and in 2010 they battled with New Zealand. Both times they lost barely. This cycle they go into this semi round as a third seeded team but something tells me they'll have a lot to say about who progresses and who doesn't from this group. They travel to Qatar in the 5th matchday then finish at home against Indonesia, so that game against Qatar will essentially decide whether they move on or not.

In Oceania, there's no real secret that New Zealand will win the confederation and represent them in the intercontinental playoff. Fiji, Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea will try prevent this but I doubt they will succeed. New Zealand's main treat on their way to possible World Cup qualification is going to be the 4th placed Concacaf team. New Zealand can expect to meet Costa Rica or Honduras or possibly Jamaica in that intercontinental playoff and personally I don't think they can defeat any of the three....we are a long way away from that however, and a lot can change. We'll see how it works out.

World Cup Draw Review: Africa

The World Cup qualifying draw for all continents (barring South America who didn't need a draw) took place on Saturday in Brazil. The continent of Africa is using a format that begins with a preliminery round that has 24 teams playing in 12 playoffs. The 12 winners will then move on to the second round which will be a group stage. The preliminery round of 24 teams includes some notable quality teams, such as Congo, Congo DR, Togo and Kenya. Assuming these four move on to the second round of qualifying they will most likely be joined by Namibia, Liberia, Mozambique, Burundi, Rwanda and the winners of Equitorial Guinea vs Madagascar, Tanzania vs Chad and Somalia vs Ethiopia (Ethiopia is favored in this rivalry). Mauritania will be the only African nation to not partake in qualification this time around. These playoffs will take place on November 11th with the return legs on November 15th.

The second round was also drawn on Saturday and here's a review of the groups as well as what we can expect. Group A features, South Africa, Botswana, Central African Republic and the winner of Somalia vs Ethiopia. Only the winner of each group progresses from this round and I think South Africa should be the winner of this group easily. If there's any challenge it will come from Botswana.

Group B includes Tunisia, Cape Verde, Sierre Leone and the winner of Equitorial Guinea vs Madagascar. This group will come down to Tunisia winning surely, but the Cape Verde Islands have an outside chance granted they defeat the teams they are expected to and get an upset over Tunisia.

In Group C we have Cote d'Ivoire, Morocco, Gambia and the winner of Chad vs Tanzania. This will arguably be the group of death in Africa. Cote d'Ivoire should be one of the strongest on the continent, while Morocco aren't that far removed from being one of the continent's top level nations. Gambia won't be a walk over either and can easily take points from either of the top 2 teams. If Morocco plays to the top of their ability we will have a close one here.

Ghana, Zambia, Sudan and the winner of the Burundi and Lesotho tie make up Group D. At first glance Ghana are the clear favorites but Zambia are traditionally tough in qualifying while Sudan can hold their own. Ghana should be good enough to win the group but an upset wouldn't be out of the question.

Ghana National Team

Group E involves Burkina Faso, Gabon, Niger and the winners of Sao Tome and Principe vs Congo. I think its safe to assume that Congo will win the preliminery matchup and join the group. Burkina Faso are the 4th highest ranked team in Africa and have the quality to win the group but Gabon has every opportunity to win the group as well. Niger and Congo should give the top 2 enough problems to make this group a close one.

Nigeria should win Group F in all likelyhood, but they like to make things harder than it should be in qualifying. Malawi joins them in the group with the winners of Seychelles vs Kenya and Djibouti vs Namibia joining them.

Group G includes multiple time African Nations Cup Champion Egypt. They usually dominate the Nations Cup, (winning the last 3 tournaments) then fall flat in World Cup qualifying (last qualifying in 1990). They are joined by some tough opposition in Guinea, Zimbabwe and the winner of Comoros vs Mozambique. Guinea are very formidable and can seriously challenge Egypt for the group and Zimbabwe are the highest ranking 3rd seeded team. Mozambique are the highest ranking of the nations in the first round playoffs as well. If Egypt falter, and there's plenty opportunity to do so, Guinea or even Zimbabwe can win this group and shock the world.

Algeria, Mali and Benin were drawn into Group H with the winner of Eritrea and Rwanda joining them. Algeria and Mali will fight for the group while Benin and Rwanda will likely decide the outcome by taking points from one of the top 2.

Cameroon

Group I, Cameroon, Libya and the winner of Guinea-Bissau vs Togo and Swaziland vs Congo DR should be interesting. Cameroon are favorites undoubtedly but the group will realistically involve Togo and Congo DR. Both nations are not that far removed from being serious threats in World Cup qualifying. Libya also poses a threat and are not second seeded for no reason. Cameroon should be fine but 1 mistake may be enough in this group to derail them.

The final group will be made up of Senegal, Uganda, Angola and the winner of Mauritius vs Liberia. 2002 qualifiers Senegal and 2006 qualifiers Angola stand out in this group. I think it will be closer than the rankings and seedings suggest.

The Final Round this time around in Africa will be full of excitement and interest. The 10 group winners will be drawn into 5 playoffs with the 5 winners qualifying for the World Cup. Potentially we could have South Africa, Tunisia, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Burkina Faso/Gabon, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Cameroon and Senegal/Angola in 2 game playoffs for their spot at a World Cup. Imagine, South Africa vs Nigeria, Tunisia vs Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana vs Algeria, Burkina Faso/Gabon vs Cameroon and Egypt vs Senegal/Angola for a spot in the World Cup. There will no doubt be some thrilling matchups and thrilling finishes in Africa with the World Cup on the line!